According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic BDO market has rebounded and fluctuated. From July 27th to August 3rd, the average price of domestic BDO increased from 10942 yuan/ton to 11100 yuan/ton, with a weekly price increase of 1.44%, a month on month decrease of 2.63%, and a year-on-year decrease of 9.31%. Some production enterprises have undergone equipment maintenance, agent replacement, and load reduction, resulting in a decrease in the overall industry load and a certain positive supply side inventory. Factories and traders are reluctant to sell in stock, which is quite favorable for the market. Downstream industries maintain contract follow-up, limited and negotiated spot purchases, and limited gains.
On the supply side, the short-term BDO production and supply have decreased, and the BDO supply side is a positive factor.
On the cost side, raw material calcium carbide: The domestic calcium carbide market is mainly organized, while the upstream raw material blue charcoal prices are low and stable, and the cost support for calcium carbide is average. The downstream PVC market has slightly increased, and downstream demand is good. On August 3rd, the benchmark price of calcium carbide in Shangshang Society was 2950.00 yuan/ton. In terms of methanol, costs and demand are improving, and the methanol market is at a high level of consolidation. As of 15:00 on August 3rd, the domestic methanol Taicang price is 2330 yuan/ton. The recent consolidation and operation of calcium carbide market and slight improvement in methanol market are expected to lead to a breakthrough in BDO cost.
On the demand side, the downstream PTMEG industry is facing difficulties in increasing demand in the short term as the maintenance load of some devices decreases and other downstream operations remain at a low level. Short term bearish factors on the demand side of BDO.
In the future market forecast, there is no significant improvement in the downstream demand of the terminal, and some downstream industries are expected to experience a decline. BDO analysts from the Business Society predict that the domestic BDO market will be mainly on a wait-and-see basis.
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