According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic BDO market is slowly rising. From August 8th to 15th, the average price of domestic BDO increased from 11257 yuan/ton to 11414 yuan/ton, with a weekly price increase of 1.44%, a month on month increase of 1.52%, and a year-on-year increase of 14.14%. At present, the industry’s capacity utilization rate is low, the market’s spot supply is tight, production enterprises are reluctant to sell, and online bidding is on the high side to support the market. Downstream rigid demand procurement is the main focus, and under cost pressure, it tends to be cautious, suppressing market growth.
On the supply side, BDO’s supply side is mixed.
On the cost side, raw material calcium carbide: The manufacturer’s inventory is average, and the upstream blue charcoal market is consolidating at a low level, while the downstream PVC market is consolidating at a high level. The factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region has slightly increased. On August 15th, the benchmark price of calcium carbide in Shangshang Society was 3033.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.82% compared to the beginning of this month (2950.00 yuan/ton). In terms of methanol, costs and demand are improving, and the methanol market is experiencing high volatility. As of 15:00 on August 15th, the domestic methanol Taicang price is 2365 yuan/ton. The recent consolidation and operation of calcium carbide market and slight improvement in methanol market are expected to lead to a breakthrough in BDO cost.
On the demand side, the follow-up of terminal demand is relatively average, suppressing the enthusiasm of downstream industries to start construction. At the same time, some downstream companies such as PBT and GBL have raised prices in response to fluctuations in raw materials, but the industry still faces losses and strong resistance to high prices. Downstream continuation of contract follow-up, spot sporadic small order procurement. Short term bearish factors on the demand side of BDO.
In the future market forecast, there is still some support on the supply side, but the downstream end has limited ability to accept high prices. Contract orders are mainly followed up, while spot orders are generally followed up, or market trends may be suppressed. BDO analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic BDO market situation will be mainly on a wait-and-see basis.
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