According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic ethanol market rose in a narrow range in August. From August 1st to 29th, the average price of domestic ethanol producers increased from 6637 yuan/ton to 6812 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 2.64% during the cycle and a year-on-year increase of 2.44%.
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At the beginning of the month, many manufacturers have gradually resumed production, with stable prices being the main focus. Traders are mostly in a wait-and-see mood, and the market situation has been sorted out and running.
In mid month, there were slight differences between regions in the domestic ethanol market, with different periods of increase. Henan region had more orders, inventory decreased, and companies had maintenance plans. Under the influence of positive factors such as a significant increase in corn prices, prices rose significantly. Large factories in Northeast Heilongjiang have limited shipments of food, resulting in a slight increase in prices.
In the second half of this month, there were slight regional differences in the domestic ethanol market, with high raw material prices and limited support from ethanol in stock. As a result, the domestic ethanol market prices remained firm.
In terms of cost, as we enter August, the domestic corn market is at a high level of consolidation. It will still take some time for the new season corn to go public. The high temperature and rainy weather in China have affected transportation, resulting in a decrease in policy investment. There are gradually fewer high-quality grain sources available for circulation, and trading entities are reluctant to sell at high prices. Feed demand is still weak, and the expectation of a high yield of the new season corn is relatively sufficient. There is a long short game. In the middle of the year, the impact of rainfall caused by the typhoon gradually eased in the production and sales areas, and the arrival volume of corn in ports and deep processing areas continued to increase. After effectively replenishing the corn inventory of ports and deep processing enterprises, the corn purchase price was lowered, causing high volatility in the domestic corn market. The cost side of ethanol is a favorable factor.
In the first ten days of the month, the maintenance of domestic ethanol supply increased: Zhaodong Edible resumed around August 15th, but production was limited; The 500000 ton unit in Fukang, Jilin was shut down on August 10th. Longhe and Romet in East China have plans to start production after the raw materials arrive at the port in the middle of the year. Henan’s construction has decreased, and Houyuan has maintenance plans in early August. As of the end of August, the Fukang device has been shut down, and the Tianyu device has resumed in mid August; Zhaodong Food resumed around August 15th, but production was limited. Longhe and Romet have plans to start production after the raw materials arrive at the port in the middle of the year. Henan Houyuan Device Storage and Maintenance Plan. The ethanol supply is mixed.
On the demand side, downstream chemical companies are just in need of procurement, and large ethyl acetate factories are gradually returning to full capacity. At the end of August, some factories in East China have maintenance plans. The short-term demand for ethanol is mixed.
In the future market forecast, cost and supply support are high, and demand is expected to break through. Ethanol analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic ethanol market may experience strong fluctuations in the short term.
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