In late August, natural rubber fluctuated slightly and rose. The Shanghai Rubber 01 contract fluctuated from around 13200 yuan/ton to around 13330 yuan/ton, and continued to fluctuate slightly thereafter. It is reported that the spot latex prices in the Chinese market continue to rise slightly, with an average increase of around 100-150 yuan/ton.
| PVA |
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the trend of natural rubber has fluctuated slightly this month and has risen. Since late August, the spot rubber market in China has fluctuated from around 11760 yuan/ton to around 12100 yuan/ton, an increase of about 2.1%.
Influencing factors:
1. Limited production of new rubber due to rainy production areas
On the supply side, in terms of new rubber production, firstly, during the peak season of global new rubber production, major production areas such as Thailand and Vietnam have been affected by rainfall, resulting in reduced production. Secondly, due to the continuous decline in latex prices in the early stage, the enthusiasm of rubber farmers for cutting rubber has been suppressed. However, the expected increase in demand in the product industry in the near future has improved the enthusiasm compared to the previous stage; Once again, in the previous stage, traders’ imports decreased, and the pressure on rubber imports slowed down to a certain extent. In terms of inventory, the entry speed of spot inventory has slowed down, and the arrival volume of dark glue at the port has decreased. Driven by the improvement in the production of products in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone’s spot glue warehouse, the speed of destocking has accelerated.
2. Expectations for a slight increase in demand during peak season
On the demand side, we are about to enter the “Golden Age”, and downstream product enterprises are just in need of a slight increase. The domestic sales of tires are insufficient, but the demand for foreign trade has increased. The demand for domestic travel and logistics industries continues to release, downstream consumption continues to increase, and the operating rate of product factories continues to be high. The natural rubber market continues to rise slightly, and the sentiment of “buying up rather than buying down” in the market is still relatively obvious. The traditional consumption peak season of “Golden Nine Silver Ten” is approaching, and driven by frequent national policies and measures to promote automobile consumption, tire companies have a certain stock demand. With the rebound in demand for latex products and the increase in raw material prices, natural rubber procurement is more active than in the previous stage, but the amplitude is not very prominent.
Future Market Forecast:
Regarding the future market, recent rainfall in Southeast Asia has had a significant impact on the production of new rubber, and the supply of new rubber has slowed down. The current export situation of tire enterprises is good, and factories are operating at a high level. The “Golden Nine Silver Ten” consumption peak season is approaching, and the natural rubber market has some positive demand support. Analysis suggests that natural rubber, which has been at a low market level for a long time, may experience fluctuations and upward trends in the future market driven by the aforementioned factors. However, the demand situation is only showing a positive trend and has not entered a stage of significant increase, so it is inevitable to experience further fluctuations. There has been a certain upward trend in prices recently, and there may be downward pressure in the short term.
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