Price trend
| PVA |
In August, the domestic ABS market fluctuated and strengthened, with overall spot prices rising. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of August 31, the average price of ABS sample products was 10750 yuan/ton, with a+1.90% increase or decrease compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.
Cause analysis
In terms of supply: The ABS industry has recently experienced a high load, with a total operating rate of around 92%, which has increased compared to the previous period. The on-site supply of goods is abundant. The inventory position has increased, reaching over 170000 tons at the end of the month. The supply side generally supports the spot market.
In terms of raw materials, the overall performance of ABS upstream three materials was relatively strong this month. The market situation of raw material acrylonitrile has significantly increased. The price of propylene fluctuates and rises, while the overall cost of acrylonitrile increases; Downstream demand forms support for acrylonitrile; The price of acrylonitrile has significantly increased supported by raw materials and demand.
The price of butadiene has increased this month. At the beginning of the month, the prices of crude oil and naphtha rose, which brought some cost drivers. At the same time, some downstream product prices rose, and there was some support for market demand. In the second half of the month, the prices of external markets increased, and some export manufacturers controlled the quantity and increased prices, leading to a subsequent increase in market quotations. At the same time, news of device maintenance has been released, and it is expected that the domestic butadiene market will continue to be strong in the short term.
From the figure below, it can be seen that the market price of styrene fell first and then rose in August. The main reason for the decline is the weakening of cost support. The reason for the increase is that Lianyungang Petrochemical, Dongming Petrochemical, and Shandong Lihuayi styrene plants have undergone maintenance, resulting in low styrene inventory and a rising market.
In terms of demand: Currently, downstream factories, including the main terminal home appliance industry, have average enthusiasm for stocking. In addition, the downstream operating rate is still at a low level due to factors such as season and power restrictions. After the price increase of ABS, the manufacturer’s acceptance declined, and the procurement operation was cautious, resulting in average overall trading volume.
Future Market Forecast
In August, the upstream three materials of ABS strengthened, providing reasonable cost support for ABS. The construction of petrochemical plants has experienced a narrow increase compared to the previous period, and the accumulation of market inventory is limited. On the demand side, support is weak, and the overall pattern of weak and rigid demand is maintained. It is expected that the ABS market may continue to operate in a stronger direction.
| http://www.pva-china.net |