Recent price trends of urea
| PVA |
According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic urea market price rose first and then fell this week. The urea price dropped from 2678.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2658.33 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.75%. Weekend prices increased by 5.28% year-on-year. On September 10th, the urea commodity index was 123.64, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 18.83% from the cycle’s highest point of 152.33 points (2022-05-15), and an increase of 122.37% from the lowest point of 55.60 points on August 17th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)
Cost support is good, downstream demand weakens, and urea supply is sufficient
From the supply side perspective, the mainstream price of urea in China has slightly decreased this week.
From the data of the upstream and downstream industry chains, it can be seen that the urea upstream market has significantly increased this week: the price of liquefied natural gas has significantly increased, from 4020.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 4476.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 11.34%, and the weekend price has decreased by 24.52% year-on-year; The price of anthracite has stabilized at a low level, with the price of Yangquan anthracite (washing medium block) at 1160 yuan/ton this week; The price of liquid ammonia has slightly increased, rising from 3333.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 3833.33 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 5.50%. The weekend price has decreased by 7.26% year-on-year. The prices of upstream raw materials have significantly increased, providing good support for urea prices. This week, the downstream melamine price of urea has stabilized at a high level, with a price of 7425.00 yuan/ton.
From a demand perspective, agricultural demand has weakened, industrial demand is average, and urea exports are good. Sporadic fertilization in agriculture. The operating rate of the compound fertilizer plant is average, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement is normal. Board and melamine enterprises generally start construction and mainly purchase on demand. From a supply perspective: Some enterprises have stopped for maintenance, and their daily urea production is around 160000-170000 tons, indicating sufficient supply.
Small fluctuation and decline in the future market
In mid to late September, the domestic urea market may experience a slight fluctuation and decline. Business Society urea analysts believe that the upstream market of urea has slightly increased, and urea costs are well supported. But downstream agricultural demand has basically ended, and industrial demand is average. The daily production of urea is around 160000-170000 tons, with sufficient supply. In the future, urea may experience a narrow range of fluctuations and decline.
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