1、 Price trend
According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the spot price of PVC carbide SG5 has decreased this week. On Thursday, September 14th, the average domestic PVC price was 6310 yuan/ton, and on Thursday, September 14th, the average price was 6214 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.52% during the week.
2、 Market analysis
This week, the domestic spot market price of PVC fell. The upstream calcium carbide market prices have significantly declined, and the futures market has weakened slightly, leading to a lack of confidence in the PVC spot market and a decrease in prices. The demand in the downstream market is poor, and the trading atmosphere on the market is weak. Many people are cautious and wait, and the overall transaction situation is weak, with pre holiday restocking being the main focus. As of now, the quotation range for PVC5 carbide materials in China is mostly around 6050-6450 yuan/ton.
In terms of crude oil, international crude oil futures closed lower on September 20th. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $89.66 per barrel, a decrease of $0.82 or 1.0%. The settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $93.53 per barrel, a decrease of $0.81 or 0.9. The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain interest rates unchanged as expected by the market, but its attitude is hawkish. It is expected that there will still be a possibility of interest rate hikes within the year, and energy demand expectations will be suppressed, leading to a downward pressure on oil prices.
In terms of calcium carbide, according to data monitored by Business Society, the prices of calcium carbide manufacturers have significantly decreased this week. Last Thursday, September 14th, the average price of domestic calcium carbide was 3350 yuan/ton. This Thursday, September 14th, the average price was 2950 yuan/ton, and the price fell by 11.94% during the week. Upstream orchid charcoal prices are stable and relatively strong, with acceptable cost support. The downstream PVC market has recently slightly declined, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for calcium carbide procurement has weakened. As the National Day approaches, manufacturers are lowering prices to attract orders. In the future, it is expected that the factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region may slightly decrease as a supplement, with consolidation being the main focus.
3、 Future Market Forecast
PVC analysts from Business Society believe that the trading atmosphere in the PVC spot market this week is not good. Upstream calcium carbide prices have significantly declined, with weak support. In addition, futures prices have been declining this week, which has dampened confidence in the spot market and shifted the focus of the PVC spot market downward. It is expected that the PVC market will continue to fluctuate within the range in the short term, and we will closely monitor changes in the news.
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