According to the bulk list data of Business Society, the price of mixed xylene has significantly decreased recently (10.13-10.23). On October 23rd, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 7510 yuan/ton, while on October 13th, the benchmark price was 8000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.12%.
Stable domestic inventory and low pressure on xylene supply
Stable inventory of mixed xylene at the port. It is understood that as of October 20th, the inventory of xylene in East China was around 26000 tons; The inventory of xylene in South China is around 3000 tons.
Asia US arbitrage significantly narrows the price decline of isomeric grade xylene in Asia
In the fourth quarter, the demand for mixed blending in North America continued to decline, and the Asia US interest rate difference narrowed significantly. The prices of isomeric grade xylene in Asia continued to decline. As of October 23rd, the price of Asian isomeric grade xylene is between 890 to 891 US dollars per ton.
Since October, the overall international crude oil price has decreased, and the support for xylene cost has weakened
Since October, the overall international crude oil price has declined, and the cost support for xylene has weakened. As of October 20th, the WTI12 contract closed at $88.30 per barrel, with a settlement of 88.08 yuan per barrel; The Brent 12 contract closed at $92.43 per barrel and settled at $92.16 per barrel.
Downstream PX starts stable xylene with rigid support needed
The domestic supply of paraxylene is normal, and the domestic PX operating rate is over 70%. However, during the maintenance of some paraxylene units, spot supply is relatively normal, and the crude oil price trend is rising. The external price trend of PX is mainly volatile. As of the 19th, the closing price in Asia is 995-997 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1020-1022 dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX plants in Asia has been mainly fluctuating, and overall, the operating rate of xylene plants in the Asian region is around 70%.
Domestic mixed blending demand is gradually entering the off-season and xylene demand support is weakening
Since the fourth quarter, the domestic mixed blending market has entered a low season, coupled with downstream replenishment behavior before the Double Festival, downstream inquiries have been light after the festival, and the demand for toluene mixed blending continues to weaken. Recently, the operating load of refineries in China has exceeded 70%, while the operating load of local refineries in Shandong is around 65%.
In terms of gasoline, there has been no holiday support recently, with a decrease in self driving frequency and driving radius. The demand for gasoline has decreased, and some businesses are moderately restocking on dips. The purchasing sentiment is not positive, and some refineries have increased their inventory. The decline in gasoline is significant. In terms of diesel, the construction of outdoor infrastructure and engineering projects has maintained a high level, coupled with the support of demand for open sea fishing and agricultural autumn harvests, logistics and transportation have shown active negative performance. The overall demand for diesel is relatively stable, so the decline in diesel is relatively small.
Future forecast: In the short term, the international crude oil market is volatile, with strong uncertainty in the cost of xylene. Currently, port inventory is stable, and overall, the price of mixed xylene will fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term.
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