According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the rare earth market price index was mainly volatile in October, with the domestic heavy rare earth market slightly rising and the light rare earth market price slightly decreasing. On October 25th, the rare earth index was 515 points, a slight decrease from 516 points at the beginning of the month, a decrease of 48.86% from the highest point of 1007 points in the cycle (2022-02-24), and an increase of 90.04% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).
The prices of neodymium oxide, praseodymium neodymium oxide, and metal praseodymium neodymium in China have slightly decreased, while the prices of metal neodymium have slightly increased. The prices of metal praseodymium and praseodymium oxide have remained stable, with the price of praseodymium neodymium oxide reaching 512500 yuan/ton as of the end of the month, a decrease of 1.44%; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy was 632500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.17%; The price of neodymium oxide was 520000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.35%; The price of neodymium metal is 662500 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.38%; The price of metal praseodymium is 670000 yuan/ton, with a stable price trend; The price of praseodymium oxide is 527500 yuan/ton, with a stable price trend.
Downstream magnetic material manufacturers produced normally during the holiday in early October, but their pre holiday inventory decreased. Some magnetic material companies stated that their orders were scheduled until mid October, leading to an increase in rare earth procurement orders and an increase in domestic rare earth market prices. However, in the middle of the year, the manufacturer’s stock preparation has come to an end, and the procurement of rare earth products is not active. In addition, the inventory of waste separation enterprises is sufficient. Although the situation of metal praseodymium neodymium price inversion has improved, the transaction situation is poor, and the domestic rare earth market prices have slightly decreased. Although some traders have driven an increase in market activity, and upstream companies have offered relatively firm prices, terminal demand has fallen short of expectations, and the overall light rare earth market is relatively weak.
The domestic heavy rare earth dysprosium series market is mainly volatile, with the price of dysprosium oxide reaching 2.66 million yuan/ton as of the end of the month, a decrease of 1.12% compared to the beginning of the month; The price of dysprosium iron alloy is 2.63 million yuan/ton, an increase of 1.74% compared to the beginning of the month; The price of dysprosium metal was 3.39 million yuan/ton, an increase of 1.19% compared to the beginning of the month; The price of terbium series in China has mainly declined, with terbium oxide priced at 8.175 million yuan/ton and metallic terbium priced at 10.35 million yuan/ton. At the beginning of the month, downstream restocking was carried out, with an increase in inquiries and a tightening of spot supply, leading to an increase in the domestic heavy rare earth market price. The later stage of procurement has come to an end, coupled with increased wait-and-see sentiment among merchants, the prices of heavy rare earths have slightly decreased. However, in October, the demand for new energy vehicles, industrial robots and other terminals continued to increase, and the demand is still positive. The domestic heavy rare earth market still has support, and overall, the prices of the heavy rare earth market have slightly increased.
According to statistics, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 879000 and 904000 units respectively in September, with year-on-year growth of 16.1% and 27.7%, and a market share of 31.6%. From January to September, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 6.313 million and 6.278 million units respectively, with year-on-year growth of 33.7% and 37.5%, and a market share of 29.8%. In 2023, the production and sales of new energy continue to rise, coupled with the opening of the Golden Nine Silver Ten Year Plan, the demand for new energy has increased, and the increase in production and sales of new energy vehicles has formed a certain support for the rare earth market, causing fluctuations in the domestic rare earth market trend.
After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern with large groups as the main body and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s share of rare earth production has decreased from 90% to 70%. According to statistics, the export volume of rare earths in September was 3935.2 tons. The cumulative total export volume of rare earths in China from January to September was 40371.8 tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%. The export volume of rare earths in China has increased, which to some extent supports the prices of the rare earth market.
The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Natural Resources have issued the second batch of total control indicators for rare earth mining, smelting and separation in 2023. The total control indicators for the second batch of rare earth mining and smelting separation in 2023 are 120000 tons and 115000 tons, respectively. In 2023, the total control index of rare earth mining, smelting and separation will be 240000 tons and 230000 tons, respectively, an increase of 14.3% and 13.9% compared with 2022. The increase of mining output will correspondingly suppress the growth of rare earth market.
Future forecast: Recently, the purchasing sentiment of magnetic material enterprises has declined, and the increase in new orders is limited. It is expected that in the short term, the pressure on rare earth market prices to rise will increase, and the rare earth market will remain mainly volatile; In the medium to long term, there is a lack of primary and renewable supply sources, and dysprosium and terbium oxides will also face shortages. In addition, driven by emerging and traditional demands such as energy-saving motors, industrial robots, wind power, variable frequency air conditioning, and consumer electronics, the global demand for rare earth permanent magnets is expected to continue to grow.
| http://www.pva-china.net |