Ethylene glycol fell 2.63% on a monthly basis
According to data from Business News Agency, on October 31st, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4073.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.63% compared to the beginning of the month. The prices in various regions are as follows:
The price range for spot goods executed by mainstream manufacturers in East China is between 3950-4160 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the South China market is 3950 yuan/ton, while the price range for mainstream manufacturers in Central China is 3950 yuan/ton; The spot price for mainstream manufacturers in North China is 4160 yuan/ton.
The ex factory tax price of coal based polyester grade ethylene glycol is low, and the current price range is 3490-3640 yuan/ton.
On October 30th, the CIF price of ethylene glycol in China was 470 US dollars/ton; The CIF Southeast Asia price is 474 US dollars per ton.
Ethylene glycol fundamentals
Supply side
Two units with a total production capacity of 1.2 million tons have recently restarted at the ethylene glycol supply end, and there is an expectation of a short-term rebound in market operating rates.
Downstream demand
The polyester factory load remains around 89.1%, and polyester filament inventory has increased by 0.7 days to 21.9 days. The current inventory level is close to the high point in April 2023; The load of terminal factories continues to increase, with the elastic loading in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions increasing by 3 percentage points to 89%, the weaving machine load increasing by 1 percentage point to 81%, and the grey fabric inventory increasing by 0.7 to 30.5 days, but still at a low level within the year. The peak season characteristics of downstream industries continue, but orders at the weaving end have begun to weaken marginally. Christmas orders for foreign trade have already ended, and domestic orders will also show a turning point at the end of the month. It is expected to enter November, Downstream demand will fall seasonally, and the loom load will also peak.
High port inventory
This week, the ethylene glycol inventory in the main port of East China has slightly decreased. As of October 30, 2023, the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol at the main port in East China was 1.143 million tons, which is still relatively high compared to the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol at the main port in East China on September 28, with a cumulative inventory of 50000 tons.
Future market forecast
After the decline in ethylene glycol prices in October, the current long short game has intensified. In the short term, due to the significant decline in the previous period and the recent rebound in macroeconomic sentiment, the price of ethylene glycol has shown a trend of stabilizing. Currently, the cost of ethylene glycol is relatively strong, and the market price of ethylene glycol is at the bottom. However, the reality of supply and demand is loose, with high inventory, which suppresses the upward trend of prices. It is expected that the probability of maintaining a volatile sideways trend in the short term will increase, and the November volatility range may slightly move up.
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