Price trend
| PVA |
In October, the domestic EVA market was negative, with spot prices decreasing in a stepwise manner. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of October 31, the benchmark price of EVA in China was 12166.67 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 7.59% compared to the beginning of the month.
Cause analysis
In terms of raw materials:
The supply of ethylene in the raw material end was sufficient in October, and the port inventory was stable. The cost fluctuation is relatively weak, and the benefits for ethylene are not significant. The supply and demand contradiction on the market only slightly alleviated by the end of the month;
The trading situation in the vinyl acetate industry is average, and the follow-up of on-site stocking is weak. At the same time, the weakening of upstream raw materials such as ethylene has led to a weak guidance for the vinyl acetate market. In addition, as vinyl acetate is about to enter the traditional off-season and demand expectations are poor, multiple bearish factors have led to a weak consolidation of the vinyl acetate market. The market for EVA raw materials is weak, and there is not significant support for the EVA market.
On the supply side:
In October, domestic EVA enterprises underwent maintenance and restart, but the scale was relatively small. The industry’s operating rate has rebounded from around 80% at the beginning of the month and climbed to around 82% at the end of the month. The overall inventory pressure of the enterprise is moderate, but the continuous high load gradually accumulates supply pressure. The confidence of manufacturers has weakened, and the factory price has been lowered. EVA suppliers have poor support for spot goods.
In terms of demand:
The sluggish EVA peak season in October has not improved. The demand for photovoltaic film has been exhausted for a long time, and consumption is becoming increasingly weak in the second half of the month. The demand for foam shoe materials has been weak for a long time, and the weak demand for EVA continues. Enterprises are cautious in their operations and have not seen any hoarding operations as they focus on just getting goods. There is very little trading on the market, and actual orders are concentrated in low-end sources, while high priced sources are highly resistant.
Future Market Forecast
Overall, the EVA market performed negatively in October. The raw material market is weak, and there is insufficient support for EVA spot sales. After the industry load drops, it rises, and supply pressure gradually rises. The current bearish guidance in the EVA market may activate some stocking demand after the spot price drops, but the possibility of a significant increase is unlikely. It is expected that the EVA market will continue to consolidate in the short term.
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