Recent price consolidation of plasticizers
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the prices of plasticizers have been fluctuating and consolidating in the past month, with prices of DOP and DOTP fluctuating and consolidating around 11400 yuan/ton; The DBP price has rapidly dropped from 10050 yuan/ton on October 16th to around 9500 yuan/ton at the end of October. In November, the DBP price fluctuated and adjusted around 9500 yuan/ton. The game between cost and supply and demand continues, and the prices of plasticizer products fluctuate and consolidate.
Cost determines the profit margin of plasticizers
According to the market analysis system of the Business Society, the price of isooctanol has rapidly declined from 12500 yuan/ton on November 16 to 11320 yuan/ton on November 2, resulting in a significant decrease in the cost of plasticizers; Afterwards, in November, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and consolidated, while in October, the price of propylene fluctuated and fell, resulting in a decrease in the cost of isooctanol. Downstream plasticizer enterprises were operating under capacity, resulting in poor demand for isooctanol. In October, the price of isooctanol significantly decreased, resulting in a decrease in plasticizer costs and an increase in the profitability of plasticizer enterprises. In November, the price of propylene first rose and then fell, and the propylene market improved. The cost of isooctanol increased, and the operating load of isooctanol enterprises increased. The supply of isooctanol increased, and downstream demand for isooctanol was just in demand. The price of isooctanol was relatively strong, and the profits of plasticizer enterprises stabilized, with a slight decline.
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of phthalic anhydride has continued to decline since October 16th. As of November 16th, the quotation for neighboring phthalic anhydride was 7487.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.6% compared to the 8375 yuan/ton price of phthalic anhydride on October 16th. The cost of plasticizers has decreased, and the profit space for plasticizers has increased. The price of n-butanol plummeted by 13.36% from October 16th to the end of October; The price of n-butanol fluctuated and consolidated in November. In the second half of October, the prices of phthalic anhydride and n-butanol significantly decreased, and the cost of plasticizer DBP decreased. In October, DBP prices rapidly declined, but the decline rate of DBP was significantly slower than that of n-butanol, and the profit of plasticizer DBP increased. In November, n-butanol prices fluctuated and consolidated, DBP costs stabilized, DBP downward pressure weakened, and DBP gross profit levels stabilized.
Profitability affects the operating rate of enterprises
In early October, the profit margin of the plasticizer market narrowed, and the capacity utilization rate of plasticizer enterprises decreased from 57% to 40%. In October, the production lines of plasticizers were reduced in production, such as Ningbo Aijing, Xinnuolixing, and Shandong Haiyou plants, while Shandong Lanfan, Aojia Yongli, and Zhenjiang Liancheng had production reductions. On October 23rd, the capacity utilization rate decreased to 40%. The tightening of supply has led to spot queues in local markets such as Shandong and Jiangsu, and a sharp drop in raw material prices. The profitability of the plasticizer market is gradually improving in the latter half of the year. In November, the production capacity utilization rate gradually rebounded, and Xinnuo Lixing, Shandong Haiyou, and Dongying Yimeide units gradually resumed production. The production capacity utilization rate rebounded to over 60%, and the plasticizer production capacity utilization rate remained within the range of 60-64%. Profits increased, and the operating rate of plasticizer enterprises was at a high level within the year. The supply of plasticizers increased, and the pressure on plasticizer prices to decline increased.
Future expectations
Analysts from Business Society’s plasticizer product data believe that since the second half of October, the plasticizer industry chain has been fluctuating and consolidating. In the second half of October, raw material prices significantly decreased, plasticizer costs decreased, and plasticizer prices fluctuated and fell. As the cost of plasticizers decreases, the profits of plasticizer enterprises increase, and the demand for raw materials increases. The prices of raw materials stop falling and consolidate, while plasticizer enterprises increase in production and supply. In the market where downstream demand continues to be weak, the supply of plasticizers increases, and the downward pressure on plasticizers increases. The weak game between cost support and supply, increase, and demand continues, and the plasticizer industry chain market fluctuated and consolidated in November.
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