According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, from November 27th to December 4th, the domestic ethanol price dropped from 6825 yuan/ton to 6787 yuan/ton, with a weekly price drop of 0.55%, a month on month decrease of 1.38%, and a year-on-year decrease of 0.55%. The increase in freight rates in some regions has led to a slight increase in delivery prices, but the factory’s shipment situation is weak, with actual orders mainly operating at the low-end. The domestic ethanol market is operating weakly.
On the cost side, with the gradual improvement of weather, the main production area in Northeast China has seen a continuous increase in corn market volume. The new season of corn production has become a certainty, and downstream trading entities have a strong wait-and-see attitude. The demand for feed in the downstream breeding industry continues to be sluggish, and imported corn and its substitutes continue to arrive in Hong Kong. The domestic corn market supply is relatively loose, and the overall price of corn in the market is under pressure and fluctuates weakly. The cost side of ethanol is influenced by bearish factors.
On the supply side, there is a significant difference in the operating rates of production enterprises in different regions, with 32.85% operating in East China and 94.98% operating in Northeast China; The operating rate in the southern and western regions is 15.84%; In the short term, domestic ethanol production in Northeast China is stable or slightly increasing, and small factories have plans to start production. The operating rate in East China fluctuates at a low level. The operating rate of coal to ethanol remains stable in the short term. The supply side of ethanol is affected by bearish factors.
On the demand side, most ethyl acetate factories maintain normal production status. There is a possibility of restoring the ethyl acetate factory. Baijiu just needs to be purchased. The short-term demand for ethanol is mixed.
In the future market forecast, there is a bearish cost situation and significant regional differences in supply and demand. Ethanol analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic ethanol market may experience weak consolidation in the short term.
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