According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China rose first and then fell this week (12.4-12.11). The average market price at the beginning of last week was 200460 yuan/ton, while the average market price at the beginning of this week was 206560 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.04%.
K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that after November 2022, tin prices have been continuously rising for three months due to macroeconomic factors. Since February 2023, prices have fallen by 11.35% in a single month, and the trend of tin prices has fluctuated narrowly in the past three months. From the weekly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the tin ingot market has seen more declines and less gains in recent times.
In terms of the futures market, the overall trend of Shanghai and Wuxi during the week was relatively strong, with LME inventory overall high. Domestic inventory has been affected by downstream stocking and has recently declined overall. At present, the overall operating rate of smelters is relatively stable in terms of supply and demand. With the increase of imported tin ingot sources, the overall supply of domestic tin ingots is relatively sufficient, while the overall supply of overseas tin ingots is surplus, and subsequent imports may continue to increase. As the demand approaches the end of the year, downstream production has slightly declined overall, and there has been little change in terminal consumption recently, but the overall situation remains weak. Overall, the tin ingot market has recently seen loose supply and weak demand. From the perspective of supply and demand, it is expected to remain stable, moderate, and weak in the short term. In the future, it is still necessary to focus on inventory changes and macro factors.
On December 10th, the non-ferrous index was at 1090 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 29.13% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 79.57% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).
According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 49th week of 2023 (12.4-12.8), there were a total of 5 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that showed a month on month increase in commodity prices. The top 3 commodities with the highest increase were tin (4.54%), nickel (3.38%), and electrolytic manganese (0.73%). There are a total of 15 products with a month on month decline, and 2 products with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 8.7% of the monitored products in this sector; The top three products with a decline were neodymium metal (-5.62%), neodymium oxide (-5.61%), and silver (-4.62%). The average increase and decrease this week was -1.32%.
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