According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the overall domestic 1 # tin ingot market was on the rise in December 2023. The average price in the domestic market was 196710 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 214060 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 8.82%.
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On December 27th, the base metal index was 1171 points, an increase of 6 points from yesterday, a decrease of 27.54% from the highest point in the cycle of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 82.40% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).
On December 27th, the tin commodity index was 108.96, an increase of 2.67 points from yesterday, a decrease of 41.95% from the highest point in the cycle of 187.70 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 154.22% from the lowest point of 42.86 points on December 9th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-09-01 present).
K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The monthly K-bar chart shows significant fluctuations in tin prices. From the weekly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the tin market has experienced more recent declines and less recent gains.
In December 2023, the tin ingot market as a whole showed an upward trend, with two significant increases during the month, occurring at the beginning and end of the month respectively, while maintaining a range of fluctuating trends during other times. At the beginning of the month, the overall trend of Shanghai tin was relatively strong, and the domestic spot market inventory was affected by downstream active stocking. Recently, the overall trend has declined, and the market has continued to rise due to demand boosting. At the end of the month, the Federal Reserve released a signal of monetary easing, leading to a general strengthening of base metals and a slight increase in Shanghai tin prices. From the perspective of supply and demand, the recent shutdown and maintenance of large enterprises in Yunnan region has led to a decline in the operating rate of domestic refined tin. According to market news, other enterprises have also planned maintenance in the near future, and the market expects a tight supply in the future, which has boosted the overall market atmosphere. In terms of demand, the market expectation for terminal consumption has improved, especially the market is optimistic about electronic product consumption in the fourth quarter, which has once again boosted market sentiment. However, currently, the actual sales situation of terminals has not significantly improved. Overall, the actual demand for tin ingots in the market is still weak, boosted by tight supply, and it is expected that the market will operate steadily with a stronger trend. In the future, it is still necessary to focus on inventory changes and macro factors.
Related data:
According to data from the General Administration of Customs, the import volume of tin ore sand and concentrate in China in November 2023 was 27872 tons (equivalent to 7279 metal tons), an increase of 6.25% year-on-year and 43% month on month.
The latest data released by the World Bureau of Metals Statistics (WBMS) on December 13 shows that in October 2023, global refined tin production was 31400 tons, consumption was 31100 tons, and there was an oversupply of 0.0200 tons. In October 2023, the global tin ore production was 27400 tons. From January to October 2023, the global refined tin production was 288900 tons, with a consumption of 279200 tons and an oversupply of 9700 tons. From January to October 2023, the global tin ore production was 254000 tons.
According to data released by the Indonesian Ministry of Trade on December 11th, the export volume of refined tin products from Indonesia in November 2023 was 7562.55 tons, a year-on-year increase of 42%.
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