1、 Price trend
According to monitoring data from Business Society, the overall price of caustic soda decreased in a stepwise manner in December. At the beginning of the month, the average price in the Shandong market was 844 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average price in the Shandong market was around 798 yuan/ton. The overall price dropped by 5.45%, a decrease of 29.26% compared to the same period last year. On December 28th, the chlor alkali index was 1108 points, a decrease of 2 points from yesterday, a decrease of 47.93% from the highest point in the cycle of 2128 points (2021-10-24), and an increase of 55.62% from the lowest point of 712 points on January 5th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)
2、 Market analysis
According to survey data from Business Society, the overall price of caustic soda has declined this month. The quotation for caustic soda in Shandong region is relatively weak, with 32% of the mainstream market for ion exchange membrane caustic soda priced at around 730-800 yuan/ton. The prices for caustic soda in Jiangsu region are consolidating, while 32% of the mainstream market for ion exchange membrane caustic soda priced at around 760-860 yuan/ton. The prices for caustic soda in Hebei region are consolidating, with 32% of the mainstream market for ion exchange membrane caustic soda priced at around 730-760 yuan/ton.
The price of liquid alkali is weak, and the price of caustic soda is weak and consolidating this week. Downstream alumina has recently replenished inventory as needed, and there is a supply-demand game, resulting in weak caustic soda prices. Next week, it is expected that North China and production reduction facilities will gradually recover, and the current caustic soda prices will remain at a low level.
According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 51st week of 2023 (12.18-12.22), there were a total of 3 products that rose, 2 products that fell, and 2 products that rose or fell to 0 on the chlor alkali industry price list. The main rising commodities include calcium carbide (0.56%), baking soda (0.50%), and PVC (0.07%); The main commodities falling are caustic soda (-1.46%) and caustic soda flakes (-0.93%). The average increase and decrease this week is -0.18%.
Business Society analysts believe that in recent times, the price of caustic soda has been weak, and downstream demand is mainly cautious, with more purchases made according to demand. It is expected that the trend will be mainly consolidation in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.
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