According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic heavy rare earth market prices have significantly declined. On January 29, the rare earth index was 398 points, a decrease of 60.48% from the highest point of 1007 points in the cycle (2022-02-24), and an increase of 46.86% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)
The price trend of domestic dysprosium oxide, dysprosium iron alloy, and metallic dysprosium has significantly declined. As of the 30th, the price of dysprosium oxide was 1.93 million yuan/ton, with a monthly price decline of 22.18%; The price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 1.925 million yuan/ton, a decrease of 22.06% in price; The price of dysprosium metal is 2.405 million yuan/ton, with a price decline of 24.25%; The domestic price of terbium series has declined, with the domestic price of terbium oxide at 5.7 million yuan/ton and the price of metallic terbium at 7.1 million yuan/ton.
In January, the prices of heavy rare earths in the market fell. Recently, there have been limited transactions in the rare earths market, with few new orders and low purchasing willingness of enterprises. Some enterprises have recently lowered their negative guarantee prices, putting pressure on metal spot transactions. Downstream magnetic material enterprises have seen a decline in production, with only 30% of production. Some magnetic material enterprises have started to take a break, and overall production has declined to below 50%, mainly due to inventory consumption. In addition, the procurement of waste recycling is not active, and the overall market support is insufficient. The pessimistic sentiment has intensified, and the trend of the heavy rare earth market has significantly declined. The total control indicators for the third batch of rare earth mining and smelting separation in 2023 are 15000 tons and 13850 tons, respectively. Generally, two batches of indicators are announced each year. The third batch of indicators in 2023 will increase mining volume, which is detrimental to the domestic rare earth market.
According to statistics, in December 2023, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.172 million and 1.191 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 47.5% and 46.4%, and a market share of 37.7%. In 2023, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 9.587 million and 9.495 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 35.8% and 37.9%, and a market share of 31.6%. In 2023, the production and sales of new energy continue to rise, and the increase in production and sales of new energy vehicles still provides support for the rare earth market.
After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern dominated by large groups and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s share of rare earth production has declined from 90% to 70%. According to statistics, China’s rare earth exports in December were 3438.8 tons; The cumulative total export volume of rare earths from China from January to December was 52306.5 tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.5%. The corresponding increase in export volume supported the prices of some products, but poor domestic demand led to a significant decline in the light rare earth market.
Market forecast: Recently, magnetic material companies have had poor purchasing and ordering sentiment, and there is a lack of new orders from holiday companies. It is expected that the prices of heavy rare earths in the market will mainly fluctuate at low levels in the short term. In the long run, the trend of long-term growth in demand for industrial robots, new energy vehicles, wind turbines and other terminals remains unchanged. High performance neodymium iron boron permanent magnets are expected to continue to increase in terminal penetration rate, which is conducive to the long-term stable development of the rare earth industry.
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