The trend of commodity prices or a quarter of the peak

During the Spring Festival holiday, the dollar index adjustment is large, the outer most commodity prices, the industry is expected, the domestic commodity futures on the first day should have good compensatory growth, non-ferrous metal prices are expected to outstanding performance. With the global PMI (PMI) index continued to rise, the raw material replenishment cycle is becoming an important driving force to promote the rise in commodity prices.

January PMI data released by the National Bureau of statistics for 51.3, hit a 5 year high, a continuation of the steady expansion trend.

However, the purchase price and the prices are down the first major raw materials, especially steel prices decline significantly. At the same time, the euro zone January manufacturing PMI final value of the data is 55.2, at the highest level in nearly 6 years. And the United States in January ISM (manufacturing index) was 56, also hit a 2 year high.

Why investors are particularly concerned about the recent PMI and ISM manufacturing data?

Research shows that China PMI inventory data, the inventory cycle and domestic copper, rubber (20105, -895.00, -4.26%) and other industrial varieties high degree of correlation. Especially in the current manufacturing industry is the pillar industry of Chinese, raw materials inventory changes impact on prices is more obvious. Once the enterprise initiative restocking end, commodity price trend will have significant change. According to historical experience, the average replenishment cycle lasts for one year to a year and a half, the market generally expected the replenishment cycle will continue until the middle of 2017.

“The actual stock compensation is still in progress.” CRE securities bond analyst Li Junjiang said that the current inventory of industrial enterprises in the downstream inventory, the restocking initiative began in the downstream industry, and with the stock up continuously, the downstream industry sales ratio gradually close to normal level, while the middle reaches of the industry sales ratio growth still continued to be negative, at the same time all industrial enterprises lower sales the absolute value of the ratio, and the year-on-year growth rate continued to be negative since the beginning of 2016, the year-on-year decline was narrowed significantly, so the restocking initiative still has persistent.

However, for restocking will continue to lead to a rise in commodity prices this year is still controversial issues in the market. However, most analysts said a quarter inflation peaked, commodity prices have peaked. Shun Securities chief economist Gao Shanwen said earlier, despite the apparent rebound in commodity futures prices in January. However, from the field of circulation, continuous two years of negative growth in the important production material price index, PPI (producer price index) chain growth continued to gain momentum is fading. In this way, commodity prices will continue to rise. But once the economic downward pressure on demand confirmation, disturbance of speculative funds may make the fluctuation of commodity futures market increased.

Haitong Securities chief economist Jiang Chao said in the short term, the Spring Festival factors and early commodity prices inflation is still pressure, taking into account the exchange rate stabilization and control of asset bubbles, prevent financial risks and other factors, prudent monetary policy will remain neutral. But as commodity prices fell, the spring festival gradually faded, high inflation is the top of the building.

“We judge a quarter inflation peaked, then in real estate and stock cycle both fell, the economy will bottom two.” Founder Securities chief economist Ren Zeping said on January PMI data, with the real estate cycle peaked, PMI large enterprises began to fall, although the replenishment cycle economy to continue to promote, but after entering the two quarter, the economy will end enterprises replenishment, down again.