Price trend
Recently, the domestic POM market has seen a narrow rise, with some brand prices increasing. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 13th, the domestic POM mixed price was 12800 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of+0.79 compared to the price level on May 1st.
Cause analysis
In terms of raw materials:
The domestic methanol market was weak and volatile this week. In terms of supply, global coal supply is stable, and the increase in domestic demand is not enough to support the rise of coal prices. In addition, with the rise in temperature, the civilian electricity load has fallen, and the consumption of power plants has contracted. Currently, the terminal is mainly supplemented by long-term cooperation, and the market demand for coal is relatively flat, with an overall wait-and-see sentiment. The cost side of methanol is influenced by bearish factors. The supply of goods continues to be abundant, while downstream demand is relatively average. In the state of supply-demand game, prices are mainly weak and consolidating, which loosens the support for the POM market.
In terms of supply:
Recently, the operating rate of domestic POM enterprises has significantly decreased, and the overall load has been reduced from 77% to 68%. Shenhua Ningmei and Xinjiang Guoye are undergoing maintenance, resulting in a contraction in supply. Meanwhile, after previous digestion, the inventory position of the aggregation plant has decreased. In addition, due to the high level of imported materials in the early stage, manufacturers have strong confidence and are attempting to increase pricing. Overall, the pressure on the supply side has eased.
In terms of demand:
Domestic POM downstream enterprises have limited post holiday changes, with approximately 60% or more. The stocking situation is average, and most of them just need to pick up the goods to maintain production. The main logic of the terminal factory is to maintain and digest inventory, with a cautious approach to picking up goods and a slower flow of goods within the site. The overall consumption level of the market still follows the previous weak trend, and overall, the demand side has poor support for the spot price of POM.
Future Market Forecast
This week, the POM market has shown a stable and upward trend. The operating rate of domestic polymerization plants has decreased, and there is an expectation of a contraction in future supply sources. The pressure on the supply side has been alleviated, and downstream consumption has remained weak, hindering the positive maintenance. It is expected that the future market will mainly fluctuate and consolidate.
| http://www.pva-china.net |