According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from May 13th to 21st, the domestic ethanol price increased from 6020 yuan/ton to 6050 yuan/ton, with a weekly price increase of 0.50%, a month on month increase of 1.04%, and a year-on-year decrease of 8.85%. The domestic ethanol market has shown a narrow upward trend with slight regional differences. Individual factories have seen significant price increases, with an increase in maintenance equipment and a decrease in supply, providing support for the mentality of all parties. However, considering the weak demand and weak enthusiasm for receiving new orders, downstream companies continue to be cautious.
In terms of cost, as we entered mid May, the overall price of corn in the Northeast production area remained stable. However, due to the listing of new wheat in some regions, trading entities shifted their focus to new wheat trade, which led to a continuous decline in corn arrival volume. In addition, supported by the reduction of circulating surplus grain at the grassroots level, deep processing enterprises in Shandong, North China, and other regions increased prices and replenished inventory, leading to a sustained rebound in corn market prices. As a result, the overall price of domestic corn market is relatively strong. The cost of ethanol is influenced by favorable factors.
On the supply side, there are significant differences in the operating rates of production enterprises in different regions; Less than 40% of construction in East China has started; About 80% of the construction in Northeast China has started; The operating rate in southern and southwestern regions is about 20%. Fukang two line maintenance, temporary shutdown of COFCO Zhaodong fuel ethanol plant for 4 days; Extend the short stop minor repair of the Yushen device, but it may be switched to formal maintenance for one month later. Chifeng Ruiyang resumed as scheduled on May 15th. The resumption of work for factories such as Anhui Carbon Xin, Hongzhan Laha, Hongzhan Bayan, and Zhaodong COFCO is approaching. The supply side of ethanol is influenced by favorable factors.
On the demand side, the periodic preparation of Baijiu festivals is nearing the end; On the demand side of ethyl acetate, the Yankuang plant is expected to resume full production, the new Tiande plant is expected to restart, and the amount of ethyl acetate is expected to increase. Short term ethanol demand is affected by bearish factors.
In the future market forecast, there are currently favorable factors supporting the cost and supply sides, with downstream demand mainly relying on demand for replenishment. Ethanol analysts from Business Society predict that the short-term domestic ethanol market situation will be mainly focused on observation and consolidation.
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