Price trend
Recently, the domestic POM market has been positive, with most brand prices increasing. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 28th, the mixed price of domestic POM was 13125 yuan/ton, an increase or decrease of 3.35% from the price level on May 1st.
Cause analysis
In terms of raw materials:
The domestic methanol market has been experiencing weak fluctuations in recent weeks. In the early stage, the foreign situation was unstable, and the amount of methanol arriving at the port was affected. Recently, the supply at the port has gradually recovered, and the equipment in the northwest production area has gradually recovered. The overall wait-and-see sentiment in the methanol market has increased, with average buying gas and mainly price fluctuations and declines, weakening the support for POM costs.
In terms of supply:
Recently, the operating rate of domestic POM enterprises has significantly decreased, and the overall load has decreased from 62%. Previously, Shenhua Ningmei and Xinjiang Guoye entered maintenance, resulting in a contraction in supply. At the same time, after digestion, the inventory position of the aggregation plant has decreased. In addition, the impact of the increase in imported materials from Seranis has led to strong confidence among manufacturers and an active increase in pricing. Overall, supply side support is still acceptable.
In terms of demand:
The load variation of downstream POM enterprises in China is limited, approximately 60%. The stocking situation requires immediate delivery to maintain production. Recently, there have been some orders released to chase up prices, but small orders are generally the main focus. At present, the main logic of the terminal factory is to maintain and digest inventory, and due to production restrictions in the later stage, the procurement operation may be maintained with caution. At present, the overall consumption level of the market is still acceptable, and it is expected that the market will return to a weak trend in the future. Overall, the demand side’s support for spot prices of POM is average.
Future Market Forecast
The POM market has shown an upward trend recently. The operating rate of domestic polymerization plants has decreased, and the expected supply of goods in the future has recovered. The pressure on the supply side is not obvious, and downstream consumption remains in high demand. It is expected that the future market will stabilize and consolidate.
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