According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the toluene market has been operating steadily recently (6.17-6.24). On June 24th, the benchmark price of toluene was 7600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the 17th.
Cost side: Recently, the crude oil market has continued to rise, and the tense geopolitical situation has resurfaced supply risks. The supply and demand situation is favorable for the oil market. In addition, with the continuous recovery of the Chinese economy and the peak oil consumption season in North America, multiple favorable factors support the upward trend of international oil prices. On June 20th, international crude oil futures rose. The settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $81.29 per barrel, an increase of $0.58 or 0.7%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was reported at $85.71 per barrel, an increase of $0.38 or 0.4%.
The external market of p-xylene has decreased, and the support for toluene is weak due to the weak demand
This week, the comprehensive operating rate of domestic PX is about 83%. The price of xylene by Sinopec Sales Company is temporarily stable, and the current execution price is 8700 yuan/ton. This price is implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Units such as Yangzi Petrochemical and Zhenhai Petrochemical operate stably, with stable production and sales. The external PX price has declined, with CFR China closing at $1039.67 per ton as of June 21, a decrease of $2.66 per ton from last week.
This week, the trend of the toluene market has been relatively stable, with Sinopec’s various enterprises operating normally, stable production of equipment, multiple products for self use, and stable production and sales. The prices quoted by enterprises have remained unchanged compared to the previous day, with prices quoted by East China Company at 7650 yuan/ton, North China Company at 7500 yuan/ton, and South China Company at 7650-7700 yuan/ton. The overall trend of the fundamentals is weak, with spot market prices slightly declining. As of the 24th, the mainstream quotation range in the toluene market in East China today is 7500-7530 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 30 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The market atmosphere remains weak, prices fluctuate narrowly, downstream demand remains weak, and actual negotiations are weak. At present, downstream disproportionation enterprises in the East China region are maintaining essential procurement, which provides certain support to the market. The market price difference has narrowed, and some export orders in the East China region have performed well. The market atmosphere has slightly improved, but overall it is still weak. In terms of demand, downstream suppliers maintain rigid procurement, with overall weak support and weak market trends
Future Market Forecast: Fundamentally speaking, there are still bearish expectations in the market, and downstream demand is generally weak. With some export orders supporting it, the overall strength is limited, and the market atmosphere is bearish. The expectations for oil adjustment and dismutation demand are also bearish. But there are maintenance plans for some toluene units on the supply side, and the supply is expected to tighten. Overall, the toluene market is mixed with both negative and positive factors, and it is expected that the short-term trend of range consolidation will be the main trend under the atmosphere of supply and demand competition.
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