The price of ethylene glycol was relatively strong in the first half of July, but began to decline slightly last week. Currently, the price is beginning to digest sideways. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of July 22, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4680 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.59% from the average price of 4561.67 yuan/ton in the East China market on July 1. The prices in each region are as follows:
The spot price range for mainstream manufacturers in East China is between 4700-4950 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the South China market is 4650 yuan/ton, and the external execution price range of mainstream manufacturers in Central China is 4650 yuan/ton; The spot price for mainstream manufacturers in North China is 4600-4700 yuan/ton.
On July 22, 2024, the spot basis of ethylene glycol at the port stopped falling and stabilized, while the contract basis was close to low and far from high. The lower basis price for July rose slightly by 5 yuan/ton today. As of the close, the lower basis price for July was 20-23 yuan/ton, and the lower basis price for August was 29-32 yuan/ton.
On July 22nd, the price of coal to ethylene glycol was relatively low, with a domestic price range of 4100-4330 yuan/ton, including taxes.
Inventory data shows a slight rebound
In the early stage, the explicit inventory data of the port significantly decreased, driving the price of ethylene glycol from 4400 yuan/ton to over 4700 yuan/ton. Recently, the inventory data has slightly rebounded. On July 22, 2024, the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China was 598600 tons, an increase of 3700 tons compared to the total spot inventory of 594900 tons on July 18.
Recent device updates
A set of 1.8 million tons of ethylene glycol in Jiangsu, with an initial production of 900000 tons, was shut down in early April. The production line is scheduled to restart this week and is expected to be discharged in the second half of the week; The other 900000 unit is currently operating at 80-90% load.
The 400000 ton/year ethylene glycol/EO unit of Fujian United was temporarily shut down last weekend due to a malfunction, with an expected shutdown time of 1-2 weeks.
There is a high probability of a sideways trend in the price of ethylene glycol
Under the expectation of import pre increase, the driving effect of inventory factors on prices in the early stage is weakening. Currently, inventory is relatively low, which provides some support for prices; In terms of demand, downstream polyester is reducing production to maintain prices, coupled with lower than expected terminal demand in the weaving industry, the industry is weak, and demand is weak. It is expected that the price of ethylene glycol will enter a sideways digestion stage in the short term.
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