Since the end of April, the domestic acrylonitrile market price has continued to decline, with the mainstream self pickup price dropping from 10800 yuan/ton to around 8800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18.5%, which has lasted for three months. At present, there is still no positive news in the market, and the supply-demand contradiction continues to exist. In the short term, the price of acrylonitrile may still have room for downward exploration.
The contradiction between supply and demand persists:
The price trend of acrylonitrile products mainly follows the logic of supply and demand. Due to the large number of maintenance and load reduction devices, the supply is temporarily tight, which stimulates price increases. Prices gradually rose from February to April this year; But starting from May, the maintenance equipment gradually resumed, and the capacity utilization rate of the acrylonitrile industry gradually increased from less than 65% to around 83%, with a significant increase in supply.
At the same time, downstream demand in various fields is gradually entering the off-season, especially in July when ABS and amide production rates are low, and consumption in other small and medium-sized downstream fields is also showing signs of weakening.
According to statistics, the supply-demand gap of domestic acrylonitrile products dropped to only 10000 tons in April, but rapidly expanded to 80000 tons in May, and remained above 50000 tons in June and July, with a very prominent surplus situation.
Significant increase in cost:
According to the trend chart, the acrylonitrile market fell rapidly in May, and the decline slowed down significantly from June to July, mainly due to increased cost pressure and acrylonitrile suppliers raising prices. Since the second half of June, the price of the main raw material propylene in the Shandong market has risen from around 6800 yuan/ton to over 7100 yuan/ton, resulting in a significant increase in the production cost of acrylonitrile and exacerbating the factory’s loss situation.
In this situation, it cannot be ruled out that some acrylonitrile plants will take production reduction measures, and the expected decrease in supply variables will slow down the pace of market quotations. However, up to now, apart from the major overhaul plan of Jilin Petrochemical from August to October, there are still no other units with maintenance or load reduction plans. Although the losses of acrylonitrile single products are gradually expanding, some acrylonitrile factories have been able to maintain stable production with the considerable benefits of by-products, especially the ACH MMA production profit, which is currently as high as 4000-5000 yuan/ton.
The downward trend of future prices is difficult to change:
The downward trend of product prices caused by supply and demand contradictions is difficult to change. In the short term, downstream demand for acrylonitrile is difficult to be optimistic. With the traditional off-season and poor economic situation, there is no obvious improvement in domestic and foreign terminal consumption. Therefore, positive support still needs to be found from the supply side. The trend of acrylonitrile plants will be the direct factor affecting the appearance of price turning points in the future.
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