According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the overall trend of mixed xylene market has been declining recently (8.2-8.9). On August 9th, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 7460 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.97% from 7610 yuan/ton on August 2nd. The mixed xylene market is still declining this cycle, but the magnitude of the downward adjustment varies among different regions, with a decline range of 100-250 yuan/ton. As of August 9th, the mainstream price range for xylene in the South China market in the morning was 7400-7500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton compared to the same period last week. The overall decline in the crude oil market during the week has dragged down the mentality of the spot market. The listing price of Sinopec has been lowered based on the prices of refineries in various regions, and the market atmosphere is weak. In terms of demand, we will continue to make essential purchases this week. However, there is insufficient demand for oil products, and the focus of negotiations is relatively low.
On the cost side: During this cycle, the crude oil market has declined. On the one hand, the OPEC+production reduction of 2.2 million barrels per day will be implemented until the end of September, but from October onwards, depending on market conditions, production may gradually increase, which is bearish for the crude oil market. On the other hand, the poor non farm payroll data and rising unemployment rate released by the United States in July, coupled with poor global economic data, have intensified market concerns about the demand outlook and increased negative pressure on the psychological level, leading to a decline in the crude oil market trend. Overall, the crude oil market has significantly declined during the cycle, with a negative rate of change in crude oil. As of August 9th, international crude oil futures have risen. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $76.84 per barrel, an increase of $0.65 or 0.9%. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $79.66 per barrel, an increase of $0.50 or 0.6%.
Supply side: As of August 12th, Sinopec’s xylene quotations have generally decreased this week. Currently, the company is operating normally, with stable production and sales of equipment. The company’s quotations remain unchanged from the previous day. Among them, the East China Company quoted 7350 yuan/ton, the North China Company quoted 7450 yuan/ton, the South China Company quoted 7400-7500 yuan/ton, and the Central China Company quoted 7450 yuan/ton.
Demand side: Phthalic anhydride and p-xylene markets continue to decline
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the phthalic anhydride market continued to decline this week. As of August 9th, the phthalic anhydride market in Shandong region showed a weak and stable trend, and downstream factories maintained their essential procurement. High end transactions were hindered, and the mainstream for on-site ortho phthalic anhydride source negotiations was between 7500-7700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton compared to the same period last week; The mainstream price for naphthalene based source negotiations is 7300-7400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton compared to the same period last week. The price of raw material ortho benzene is weak and stabilizing, while the downstream plasticizer market is fluctuating and falling. The operation of on-site merchants’ equipment is stable, and the sales situation is average.
On August 12th, Sinopec Sales Company temporarily stabilized the price of xylene, with the current execution price being 8500 yuan/ton. This price is implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other facilities are operating stably and selling normally. As of August 8th, CFR China’s closing price was 983 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 22 US dollars/ton from last week.
On Friday (August 9th), the Asian xylene market was closed due to a public holiday. The market closed on August 8th, with FOB Korea closing at $851-853 per ton in August, unchanged; In September, CFR China closed at $885/ton, unchanged.
Market forecast: Limited support in the crude oil market, low oil prices dragging down market sentiment, and currently insufficient cost support. There is an expectation of an increase in the operating rate of some equipment on the supply side, and the market expects loose supply in the future, which may lead to negative factors on the supply side. The demand side has recently shown weak performance, with demand leaning towards rigid demand. Overall, there are still negative factors in the xylene market, and it is expected that prices will remain weak in the short term. In the future, we will focus on the impact of the resumption of xylene production on the market supply side.
| http://www.pva-china.net |