Price trend
According to the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market remained stagnant in mid August, with narrow fluctuations in spot prices for various brands. As of August 20th, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC was around 16283.33 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of -1.11% compared to August 1st.
Cause analysis
On the supply side: In mid August, the overall operating rate of domestic PC remained stable with a slight increase, and the industry average operating rate narrowly increased by 1.8% to 75% compared to early August. At the end of July, spot prices fell to the lowest point of the year, and manufacturers increased their efforts to raise prices and build a bottom. In the middle of the year, aggregation factories worked together to raise prices to cover up merchant shipments, but the results showed little effect. The scale of the future maintenance plan is average, and Wanhua Chemical plans to restart on the 20th, with industry demand expected to be high, stable, and slightly rising. The on-site supply of goods will still remain abundant, and overall, the market supply side provides moderate support for PC prices.
In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that the current domestic price trend of bisphenol A continues the weak pattern in the first half of the year. In the early stage, the increase in international crude oil prices was suppressed by weak demand prospects, which in turn affected the weakness of bisphenol A raw materials phenol and acetone. Since then, the support for bisphenol A from the raw material side has weakened. The bisphenol A industry has limited changes in terms of load, with a flat trend in supply and a stalemate in supply side support. The downstream production of the two main forces has weakened, with weak inventory and rigid demand procurement, resulting in poor liquidity of the supply of goods. Overall, the support of bisphenol A for PC costs has decreased. However, due to the recent increase in geopolitical instability, there is a possibility of rising oil prices. It is recommended to closely monitor the upstream trends in the far end.
In terms of demand, the PC consumption pattern did not show any improvement in mid August, and the overall trend remained weak compared to the previous period. The main logic of procurement is biased towards weak rigid demand, with factories taking goods to maintain production. Downstream enterprises have low loads, weak stocking enthusiasm, and low consumption levels. Buyers have strong resistance to high priced goods and have a negative response to the rally from aggregation factories. The circulation of goods on site is slow. The demand side has poor support for spot prices.
Future forecast
The PC market remained stagnant in mid August. The weak trend of upstream bisphenol A market continues, and the support for PC cost side weakens. The load of domestic polymerization plants remains stable with a slight increase, but there has been no improvement in supply side factors. In the early stage, PC prices fell to the low range of the year, but the market did not rebound due to bottoming out forces. On the contrary, downstream weak rigid demand consumption is difficult to drive the market. The market supply flow is poor, and the supply-demand imbalance is difficult to change in the short term. It is expected that the PC market will continue to operate at a low level in the short term.
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