Price trend
According to the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market has been stagnant recently, with narrow fluctuations in spot prices for various brands. As of August 26th, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC is around 16250 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of -1.32% compared to August 1st.
Cause analysis
Supply side: Since mid August, the overall operating rate of PC in China has remained relatively stable, with the industry average operating rate remaining the same as before, at around 75%. At present, spot prices are still at the low point of the year at the end of July, and producers are pushing prices to build a bottom, but it is difficult to make further operations. The scale of the future maintenance plan is average, and Wanhua Chemical, which had previously shut down the entire line, gradually restarted on the 23rd, with expectations of a slight increase in industry load. The on-site supply of goods will still remain abundant, and overall, the market supply side provides moderate support for PC prices.
In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that the current domestic price trend of bisphenol A continues the previous weak pattern. The remote international crude oil price increase is suppressed by weak demand prospects, and the fluctuations of bisphenol A raw materials such as phenol and acetone have led to moderate support for bisphenol A on the raw material side. In recent times, there has been a trade-off between maintenance and resumption of work in the bisphenol A industry, with a flattening trend in supply and a stalemate in supply side support. The downstream stocking of the two main forces is weak and the demand for procurement is high, resulting in poor liquidity of the source of goods. Overall, bisphenol A has poor cost support for PC.
In terms of demand, the PC consumption pattern has not shown any improvement in the medium to long term, and the overall trend has been relatively weak compared to the previous period. The main logic of procurement is biased towards weak rigid demand, with factories taking goods to maintain production. Downstream enterprises have low loads, weak stocking enthusiasm, and low consumption levels. Buyers have strong resistance to high priced goods and have a negative response to the rally from aggregation factories. The circulation of goods on site is slow. The demand side has poor support for spot prices.
Future forecast
The PC market has been stagnant at a low level recently. The weak trend of upstream bisphenol A market continues, and the support for PC cost side weakens. The load of domestic aggregation plants is fluctuating, and there has been no improvement in supply side factors. In the early stage, PC prices fell to the low range of the year, but the market did not rebound due to bottoming out forces. On the contrary, downstream weak rigid demand consumption is difficult to drive the market. The market supply flow is poor, and the supply-demand imbalance is difficult to change in the short term. It is expected that the PC market will continue to operate at a low level in the short term.
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