1、 Price trend
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash continued to decline in August. The average market price of light soda ash at the beginning of the month was 1884 yuan/ton, and the average market price at the end of the month was around 1810 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.93% during the month and a decrease of 37.37% compared to the same period last year. On August 30th, the light soda ash commodity index was 92.82, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 50.91% from the cycle’s highest point of 189.10 points (2021-11-07), and an increase of 46.98% from the lowest point of 63.15 points on November 18, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)
2、 Market analysis
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the soda ash market continued to operate weakly this month. On the supply side, the utilization rate of soda ash production capacity is still at a high level, with sufficient soda ash production, accumulated market inventory, and active shipment by enterprises; On the demand side, the terminal market continues to operate weakly and mainly consumes inventory. At the same time, some glass companies have started cold repair plans, resulting in insufficient downstream demand and weak market trading atmosphere. Under the supply-demand game, the price of soda ash continues to decline. As of August 30, 2024, the price of soda ash in East China is weakly stable, with the mainstream market price of light soda ash being around 1650-1970 yuan/ton. The price of soda ash in Central China has been lowered, with the mainstream market price of light soda ash being around 1520-1850 yuan/ton.
On the demand side: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price trend of glass has continued to decline this month. The average market price of glass at the beginning of the month was 17.24 yuan/square meter, and the average market price at the end of the month was 15.72 yuan/square meter, a decrease of 8.82%. The spot prices in the glass market continue to be weak, with downstream inventory consumption being the main factor. Market demand is weak, and trading in the market is sluggish, resulting in a continuous decline in prices.
According to the price monitoring of Shengyi Society, in the 34th week of 2024 (8.19-8.23), there was a total of 1 commodity that rose, 3 commodities that fell, and 2 commodities with zero rise and fall in the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodities experiencing an increase are: caustic soda (0.75%); The main commodities experiencing a decline are baking soda (-1.49%), light soda ash (-0.55%), and PVC (-0.22%). The average increase or decrease this week is -0.25%.
Market forecast: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the recent price trend of light soda ash is mainly weak and stable, with some slight downward adjustments. The operating rate of spot alkali plant equipment has slightly decreased, but the supply of goods is still sufficient and the supply side support is insufficient. The downstream market is weak, and there is a cold repair plan in the glass market. The demand for soda ash is limited, and there is a lack of favorable market conditions. It is expected that soda ash will continue to be weak in the later period, depending on the demand in the downstream market.
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