According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the overall market for mixed xylene will decline from October 14th to 21st, 2024. On October 14th, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 6250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7% from 5850 yuan/ton on October 21st. The overall decline in the xylene market this cycle has been hindered by the poor performance of the post holiday crude oil market, which has dragged down market sentiment. The overall supply of xylene in the market is relatively loose, and some facilities in Shandong have been put into operation, as well as overall high port inventories. In terms of demand, the downstream market tends to be rigid and weak, which has dragged down market sentiment. Spot market offers continued to decline during the week, and refineries also actively shipped, resulting in a gradual decline in market prices.
Cost wise: As of the 18th, international crude oil futures closed down, with the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States at $68.69 per barrel. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract is $73.06 per barrel. The recent trend of crude oil prices has fallen, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is controllable. In addition, the future demand for crude oil market is worrying, which has led to a continuous decline in the oil market; However, the recent decline in US crude oil inventories still provides support for the crude oil market, resulting in a slight decrease in overall crude oil market prices.
Supply side: During this cycle, Sinopec’s xylene quotation has overall declined. Currently, the company is operating normally, with stable production and sales. The company’s quotation remains unchanged from the previous day. As of October 21st, East China Company quoted 5850 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 5800-5850 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 5900-6000 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 5700 yuan/ton.
Demand side: The external market for xylene continues to decline, and demand support is weak
On October 21st, Sinopec Sales Company implemented a price of 7600 yuan/ton for xylene, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from the price on October 14th. The PX price continued to decline both inside and outside the cycle. As of October 18th, the closing price of the xylene market in Asia increased by $10/ton, with a closing price of $823-825/ton FOB Korea and $848-850/ton CFR China.
Market forecast: The crude oil market is expected to operate weakly in the near future, with weak cost support. In terms of supply, port inventories in East China have been accumulating recently, while plant construction in Shandong has increased. Refineries have accumulated inventory, which has a negative impact on the market. On the demand side, the trend of refined oil products is weak, and the purchasing intention is biased towards rigid demand. Overall, the recent bearish impact on the spot market is significant, and it is expected that the xylene market will continue to operate weakly in the short term.
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