Price trend
According to the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market fluctuated narrowly in October, with some spot prices of certain brands falling below pre holiday levels. As of October 31st, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC is around 16000 yuan/ton, with a price fluctuation of -0.62% compared to early October.
Cause analysis
On the supply side: In October, the overall operating rate of domestic PCs showed limited changes. As of the 31st, the industry average operating rate fluctuated from 79% at the beginning of the month to around 81%. The weekly production of PC remains at a super high level of over 60000 tons in the medium and long term, with abundant on-site supply and a profound supply-demand mismatch pattern. The loose supply pattern in October has not changed, and it is difficult to see good news on the supply side. Manufacturers are unable to raise prices, and factory pricing is under pressure to be lowered. At the same time, the future maintenance plan is sparse, and the market supply side has a serious drag on PC prices.
In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that the domestic price of bisphenol A significantly decreased in October. The direct raw materials of bisphenol A, phenol and acetone, fell in the first half of the month, but stabilized at the end of the month and rebounded narrowly. The downstream production changes of the two main forces are limited, coupled with insufficient stocking heat, the profit situation of enterprises has weakened, and the consumption of bisphenol A is not good. In addition, at the beginning of the month, the load of the bisphenol A industry returned to be relatively high, and the supply of goods increased in the middle of the month. Overall, bisphenol A has weak support for PC costs.
In terms of demand, the PC consumption pattern has not shown any improvement in the medium to long term, and the overall trend has been relatively weak compared to the previous period. Last month, the traditional peak season “Golden September” terminal consumption situation has not yet unfolded, and the logic of weak rigid demand procurement continues until the end of October. The bidding price of Zhejiang Petrochemical has fallen at a low level, and the wait-and-see sentiment of the industry is biased. Buyers have strong resistance to high priced goods, and the circulation of goods on site is slow. The load recovery of downstream enterprises is not significant, and factories are taking goods to maintain production. At this point, the traditional peak season for PC sales this year has come to an end, and the demand side is unable to provide strong support for spot prices.
Future forecast
The PC market rose in early October due to macroeconomic factors such as improved sentiment in the commodity market, and then returned to fundamental guidance, with gains giving up. The upstream bisphenol A market fell sharply, and although there were signs of a halt at the end of the month, the overall cost support for PC was weak. The load of domestic aggregation plants continues to be high, and the supply remains high. Currently, the center of gravity of domestic PC prices has fallen below early October. Downstream peak season consumption has not been realized, and weak rigid demand stocking is difficult to drive the market. The flow of market goods is poor, and the mismatch between supply and demand is profound. Although PC prices have fallen to the low point range of the year, industry benefits are difficult to materialize. Therefore, Shengyi Society predicts that the future PC market may face the risk of a downward trend.
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