Domestic policies are favorable, and nickel prices have been rising steadily this week (11.1-11.8). According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Shengyi Society, as of November 8th, spot nickel prices were reported at 130791 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 5.41%.
Macroscopically, the decline of the US dollar over the weekend provided support for the trend of basic metals. The weak US dollar made US dollar denominated metals cheaper for foreign currency holders, boosting the London metal market to generally close higher. Nickel prices fluctuated and rose with the trend, breaking away from the previous continuous decline, and the domestic market rose accordingly. According to Denis Sharypin, Strategic Marketing Director of Norilsk Nickel, in a speech on November 6th, 250000 tons of nickel supply have been shut down in the global market since 2023, with an additional 170000 tons facing potential shutdown risks. The tight supply situation in the global nickel market is becoming increasingly apparent. China’s 60000 ton nickel production capacity may face shutdown, posing a severe challenge to the global nickel market’s supply-demand balance. Concerns about reduced nickel ore supply have boosted nickel prices. On the same day, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of China publicly solicited opinions on the draft action plan for high-quality development of the new energy storage manufacturing industry. The draft proposes to increase support for mineral resources such as lithium, cobalt, and nickel in China, scientifically and orderly allocate mining rights, and enhance domestic resource security capabilities. The favorable domestic policies have led to a continued upward trend in nickel prices this week, which has continued to strengthen.
On the supply side, foreign inventory has grown rapidly, while the number of goods that meet delivery quality in China has slightly increased, resulting in continued oversupply. As of November 8th, Shanghai nickel inventory was 31216 tons, an increase of 474 tons from last Friday; On November 8th, LME nickel inventory was 150336 tons, an increase of 14814 tons from last Friday.
On the demand side: Stainless steel rebounded slightly within the week. On November 8th, the benchmark price of stainless steel in Shengyi Society was 13700 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.18% compared to the beginning of the month. Stainless steel supply remained high, and the improvement effect of macro favorable policies such as real estate on stainless steel demand still needs time to wait. Overall, the performance is average. With last week’s low prices and a certain amount of stock available, there is a strong need for procurement.
Market forecast: Macro positive news continues to boost, but inventory pressure poses price resistance, and nickel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term.
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