Market Overview: In November, the domestic acrylonitrile market prices continued to slowly rise, with major factories in East China operating at low loads. The temporary tightening of supply provided favorable market conditions, coupled with an increase in downstream demand, and continued to rise this week.
On the supply side: During the week, major factories in East China were operating at low loads, and supply in the region continued to be tight. The northern market was operating at full capacity. As of November 8th, the domestic acrylonitrile industry’s capacity utilization rate reached 71.15%, a decrease of -2.27% compared to the same period last week. The total output of the factory during the week decreased to 65800 tons, a decrease of 3.09% compared to last week, and the inventory of acrylonitrile enterprises was 47900 tons, a decrease of 3.04% compared to last week.
In terms of cost: This week, the price of propylene in Shandong’s market fluctuated at a high level, with the mainstream closing reference being 6840-6980 yuan/ton. During the week, a 600000 ton/year PDH plant in North China was shut down, boosting market sentiment. At the same time, enterprise inventories were mostly in a low position, providing support for price trends. However, there is still a large price difference between regions, which exacerbates downstream buying caution. It is expected that short-term adjustments will continue to be mainly volatile.
In terms of demand, the utilization rate of downstream ABS production capacity has increased to 72.3%, an increase of about 3.5% compared to the same period last week, with a slight increase in demand for acrylonitrile.
Market expectation: Currently, the tight supply in the East China region is expected to continue for a long time, and overall demand is also showing some growth. Northern resources are gradually flowing into the East China market, easing the excess pressure in the north, and the market as a whole continues to explore.
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