According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, on November 15th, the reference price for the domestic silicon metal # 441 market was 12120 yuan/ton, which remained stable compared to November 8th. Compared to November 1st (silicon metal # 441 market price of 12070 yuan/ton), the price increased by 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.41%; Compared with October 1st (market price of 11960 yuan/ton for silicon metal # 441), the price has increased by 160 yuan/ton, a 1.34% increase.
From the market monitoring system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that since November, the overall market situation of domestic silicon metal # 441 has shown a stable operation after rising. At the beginning of the month, there was a slight upward adjustment in the spot market for silicon metal in some regions of China, including Tianjin and Huangpu Port. The market price of silicon metal # 441 increased by 50 yuan/ton. The market prices of Metal Silicon # 441 and Metal Silicon 553 # (oxygen supply) in Kunming area have increased by 50 yuan and 100 yuan/ton respectively. The market price of silicon metal # 553 (without oxygen) in Sichuan region has increased by 50 yuan/ton. Subsequently, the spot market for silicon metal # 441 remained stable until mid month. As of November 15th, the domestic market price reference for metallic silicon 441 # is around 11900-12400 yuan/ton.
Fundamental situation
In terms of construction: Currently, the overall construction rate of metal silicon enterprises in northern China has not changed much, with the northern region maintaining a high level of construction, while the construction rate of metal silicon in Sichuan Yunnan region has decreased to some extent.
On the supply side: Currently, the overall supply of silicon metal in the market has narrowed. With the downward adjustment of silicon metal production in some regions, it is expected that the overall market output will also decrease. The overall supply of silicon metal has contracted, and there is not much pressure on the spot market supply, resulting in tight circulation.
In terms of demand, the overall demand performance of downstream silicon metal is still mainly based on on-demand procurement, and the overall demand side has not changed much compared to the previous period.
In terms of inventory: According to incomplete statistics, on November 8th, the estimated social inventory of domestic silicon metal was around 499000 tons, a decrease of about 3000 tons compared to the previous week. Among them, there were about 156000 tons in ordinary warehouses, a decrease of 0.3 million tons from last week.
In terms of production: According to incomplete statistics, China’s industrial silicon production in October was about 470000 tons, an increase of about 15700 tons compared to the previous month, with a growth rate of about 3.5%. From January to October 2024, the cumulative production of industrial silicon in China was about 4.1626 million tons, an increase of about 1.115 million tons year-on-year, with a growth rate of about 36.6%.
Market Price Trends of Metal Silicon
Brand number/ Region/ November 15th
#441./Tianjin area/ Around 11900~12100 yuan/ton
#441./Huangpu Port area/ Around 12000~12200 yuan/ton
#441./Kunming area/ Around 12200~12400 yuan/ton
#553 (oxygen supply)/ Kunming area/ Around 11700~11900 yuan/ton
#553 (without oxygen)/ Sichuan region/ Around 11200~11400 yuan/ton
Market analysis in the future
At present, the trading atmosphere in the metal silicon market is mild, downstream purchases are made according to quantity, and the transmission of supply and demand remains weak. The metal silicon data analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that in the short term, the domestic metal silicon market will mainly operate with large stability and small movements, and specific changes in supply and demand information need to be closely monitored.
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