Ethylene glycol prices fall in November
The price of ethylene glycol fell in November. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of November 26th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.65% from the average price of 4630 yuan/ton on November 1st.
On November 26, 2024, the spot operating price of ethylene glycol at the port was 4600-4630 yuan/ton. The basis of the ethylene glycol spot contract at the port remained stable during the day, with a slight increase. In the morning session, the basis price of the spot contract for this week was+46 to+49, in the afternoon session it was+48 to+50, and in December, the basis price was+55 to+57. After the futures market rose in the afternoon, a small number of customers shipped at high prices, and there were not many buyers, resulting in light trading volume.
On November 26th, the price of coal to ethylene glycol remained stable, with prices in the northwest region ranging from 4220-4350 yuan/ton, including taxes.
On November 25, 2024, the external price of ethylene glycol was as follows: the landed price in China was $536/ton, a decrease of $4/ton, and the landed price in Southeast Asia was $546/ton.
The supply of ethylene glycol is increasing, and the demand is weak
On the supply side, the overall operating rate of domestic ethylene glycol has rebounded, with a slight increase in operating rate and a slight increase in production. Specific manifestations: The load of synthesis gas to ethylene glycol is gradually recovering, and due to the weakening demand for ethylene oxide, some non coal production units have switched from producing ethylene oxide to producing ethylene glycol.
Demand side: The downstream polyester load is relatively high, and the filament maintains a high operating load, with little room for further improvement. The loading and weaving loads are weakening. Terminal autumn and winter orders have still fallen short of expectations in the near future, with expectations of a weakened polyester load in December.
Expected rebound in ethylene glycol inventory
The explicit inventory data of ethylene glycol at the port is still relatively low, but there is an expectation of an increase in recent arrivals. There is a strong expectation that ethylene glycol will gradually enter the trend of accumulating inventory in December.
Future expectations
The fundamentals of ethylene glycol are weakening, and the future price variables of ethylene glycol mainly depend on overseas supply and cost support. It is expected that ethylene glycol prices will fluctuate weakly in the short term.
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