According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic polyester staple fiber market has shown a slight decline since December due to the low demand season. As of December 12th, the average price of 1.4D * 38mm in mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 7126 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.7% from the beginning of the month.
In the future, the crude oil market has been relatively strong recently, which has boosted the cost of short fibers. Although OPEC has lowered its global demand forecast for five consecutive months in its monthly report, the decrease in US crude oil inventories has been offset by an increase in refined oil inventories. However, China’s boost to the economy may increase oil demand, and European and American crude oil futures have risen for the third consecutive day. As of December 11th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $70.29 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $73.52 per barrel.
This week, the domestic PTA spot market showed a slight upward trend. As of December 12th, the average price of PTA in the East China region was 4734 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.14% from the beginning of the week. But its own supply is still sufficient, and the 1.1 million ton PTA plant of Zhuhai Ineos was overhauled for more than 20 days in early December. The total production capacity of PTA at Jiaxing Petrochemical is 3.7 million tons per year, of which the 1 # 1.5 million ton units underwent maintenance on December 12th, and the restart time is yet to be determined. The supply has slightly decreased, and the PTA industry is operating at around 88%. However, the domestic PTA supply remains high, and we are concerned about the progress of Dushan Energy’s 2.7 million ton PTA new plant plan to be put into operation in mid December next week.
The trading atmosphere for cold resistant fabrics at downstream textile terminals is still good, and the atmosphere for inquiries about some spring orders is good. Intermediaries and traders only stock up on demand, and the delivery of domestic and foreign trade orders is coming to an end. As of December 11th, the comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is less than 70%. At present, factory inventory and financial pressure have increased, and the connection of new orders is not smooth. Weaving manufacturers are cautious and weak in their expectations for the future, and there are still expectations of a decline in production in the weaving industry. With the impact of the off-season of consumption, it is expected that the transaction atmosphere in the yarn market will further weaken, and there is an expectation of weakened demand.
Overall, due to the lack of sustainability driven by favorable costs, as well as sufficient supply and weak demand, the supply-demand structure is weakening, and it is expected that the price of polyester staple fiber will continue to decline.
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