In December 2024, the domestic adhesive short fiber market remained weak and stable. The price trend of upstream raw materials market is not good, and the cost support is weak and stable; The inventory of various adhesive short fiber manufacturers is at a low level, and there is currently no obvious inventory pressure; Downstream yarn factories mainly consume raw material inventory and have low enthusiasm for replenishing raw materials. There are both positive and negative factors in the market, and although adhesive short fiber manufacturers have stable quotations, the actual focus of market negotiations has shifted downwards.
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 30th, the domestic ex factory price of 1.2D * 38mm adhesive short fiber was 13820 yuan/ton, which was the same as the beginning of the month and increased by 7.13% compared to the beginning of the year.
In terms of cost, the market price of the main raw material dissolving slurry has not fluctuated much, the market price of auxiliary liquid alkali has continued to decline, the market price of sulfuric acid has risen, the cost center of gravity has fallen, and the average production cost of adhesive short fibers has slightly decreased.
Supply inventory: In December, the overall supply of adhesive short fibers in the market slightly increased compared to the previous month. During the month, some adhesive short fiber units in Shandong region are scheduled to undergo one month of maintenance, while the operating load of adhesive short fiber units in Sichuan region has increased, resulting in a slight increase in on-site supply. The number of signed orders within the month has decreased compared to the previous month. With orders from various adhesive short fiber manufacturers being delivered one after another, the overall inventory level in the market has significantly increased, but there is no obvious inventory pressure.
On the demand side: The trading atmosphere in the human cotton yarn market is poor, and prices have slightly decreased. The demand in the terminal market continues to be weak, and the inventory of finished products in the downstream cotton yarn market continues to accumulate. The main consumption of raw material inventory during the month is weak, and the willingness to replenish inventory is not strong. It is difficult to find favorable support from the demand side.
Future forecast
The operating rate of the downstream adhesive short fiber market may still be at a high level, and there is still demand for the dissolution slurry market. Therefore, it is expected that the dissolution slurry market will mainly consolidate next month, with stable cost support. Supply and demand side: Some maintenance facilities in Shandong region may restart in the early stage, and there may be a slight increase in on-site supply; The downstream market is gradually entering the Spring Festival holiday mode, and the new round of signing volume may decrease, further weakening demand.
Overall, the upstream main raw material dissolution slurry market is undergoing consolidation and operation, with a narrow increase in on-site supply. Downstream factories or most of them are reducing production and going on holiday, resulting in poor performance on the demand side. Market news is mainly negative. Business analysts predict that the price trend of the domestic adhesive short fiber market will slightly decline next month, with a decline of about 100-200 yuan/ton.
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