1、 Market price overview
As of January 9th, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 6287.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.55% compared to the beginning of this month (6322.50 yuan/ton).
2、 Market supply and demand situation
1. Supply: In recent years, the production capacity of melamine has gradually increased, especially in the second half of 2024, resulting in a significant increase in the domestic supply of melamine. However, due to the overall poor profit situation in the industry, some manufacturers may choose to reduce production or postpone production, which to some extent alleviates the supply pressure in the market.
2. Demand: The main downstream industries of melamine include sheet metal, impregnated paper, coatings, etc. The development status of these industries directly affects the demand for melamine. In recent years, the real estate market has remained sluggish, leading to insufficient production by downstream enterprises associated with it, resulting in an overall decline in demand for melamine. But with the continuous relaxation of real estate policies and the gradual digestion of the existing market, downstream demand may rebound in the near future.
3、 Inventory and price
1. Inventory situation: Due to weak downstream demand, the inventory pressure of melamine enterprises is gradually increasing. However, due to the relatively controllable overall inventory pressure, the company did not adopt a strategy of large-scale price reduction and promotion, but chose to temporarily stabilize prices until market demand recovers.
2. Price trend: In the first half of 2024, the price of melamine remained relatively stable but showed a weak downward trend. In the second half of the year, with the gradual release of new production capacity and the continued weakness of downstream demand, the price of melamine further fell and remained at a low level. In the near future, with the gradual adjustment of supply and demand, the price of melamine is expected to stabilize or even rebound slightly.
4、 Market outlook
Price fluctuations may continue: Due to changes in supply and demand, production costs, and other factors, the market price of melamine may continue to fluctuate.
Market competition will intensify: With the gradual release of new production capacity and the continued weakness of downstream demand, competition in the melamine market may further intensify.
The export market is expected to expand: Against the backdrop of gradually improving international trade environment, China’s melamine export market is expected to further expand, thereby having a certain impact on domestic market prices.
In summary, the market atmosphere for melamine this week was average, but due to the overall low inventory pressure, prices have temporarily stabilized. In the foreseeable future, with the gradual adjustment of supply and demand and the continuous changes in policy environment, the melamine market is expected to usher in new development opportunities.
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