This week (1.11-1.17), the nickel market rebounded. According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Shengyi Society, on January 17th, spot nickel was reported at 129075 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.48%.
Macroscopically, China has released its 2024 economic report card, indicating that the country’s economy is operating steadily with progress. The annual gross domestic product was 134908.4 billion yuan, an increase of 5.0% over the previous year. The total import and export volume of goods in 2024 was 43846.8 billion yuan, an increase of 5.0% over the previous year. The market expects global economic growth and strong demand for industrial metals, boosting the upward trend of the market.
On the supply side: Indonesia has set the nickel mining quota for 2025 at around 200 million tons, which is 400 million tons less than in 2024. Lunding Mining stated that nickel production will gradually decrease over the next three years. At present, as the Spring Festival approaches, destocking is weak, and the electrolytic nickel market remains loose. On January 17th, the inventory of Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts was 27558 tons, an increase of 100 tons during the week; On January 16th, LME nickel inventory was 167994 tons, an increase of 3684 tons during the week.
In terms of demand, factors such as the approaching Spring Festival and holiday arrangements have weakened the demand in the spot market. The demand for nickel in the fields of essential needs replenishment, alloys, batteries, stainless steel, etc. is expected to maintain growth, but overall activity is still limited.
Market forecast: There is still resistance to the upward movement of nickel prices under inventory pressure, but with production control in the mining sector and expectations of global economic recovery, it is expected that nickel prices may experience strong range fluctuations.
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