According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from January 13th to 17th, the average price of BDO in China fell from 8471 yuan/ton to 8442 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.34% during the period, a month on month drop of 1.50%, and a year-on-year drop of 11.53%. Exploring the weakness of the domestic BDO market. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, most downstream factories have reduced their workload or stopped for vacation, resulting in a decrease in the demand side’s digestion of raw materials. However, the supply of BDO is still acceptable, but the pressure of supply and demand has increased. Holding manufacturers have a shipping mentality, and the focus of negotiations is fluctuating downward.
On the supply side, although the Lanshan Tunhe Phase III agent has been replaced, Wanhua and Kaixiang have maintained stable operation after early maintenance and restart of parking devices, resulting in an increase in BDO supply and average support on the supply side. The supply side is affected by bearish factors.
In terms of cost, raw material calcium carbide: The domestic calcium carbide market has maintained stable operation. With the approaching Spring Festival and the increasing expectations of rainy and snowy weather in northern regions, downstream stocking enthusiasm has significantly increased. Recently, there has been a noticeable destocking in Wuhai and Ningxia regions. Raw material methanol: The domestic methanol market is fluctuating at a high level. As of 3:00 pm on January 17th, the domestic price of methanol in Taicang is 2695 yuan/ton. The market for raw material calcium carbide remains stable and stable, while methanol prices tend to strengthen and consolidate. The cost of BDO is influenced by favorable factors.
On the demand side, as the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the terminal spandex production has declined and the market is running weakly, resulting in multiple downstream PTMEG units experiencing load reduction, parking or maintenance expectations, and a decrease in industry load. Other downstream industries such as PBAT, TPU, and PU pulp have also experienced a significant decline in industry load due to poor terminal follow-up. The demand side of BDO is affected by bearish factors.
In the future market forecast, the operation of the equipment is relatively stable, and the supply side support is average; However, the downstream load of the terminal has declined, which has led to the digestion of inventory of raw materials, and the pre holiday stocking has basically ended, resulting in increased supply and demand pressure. Business analyst BDO predicts that the domestic BDO market has limited volatility.
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