Enter the value of investment range
Since mid-February, plastic futures continued to adjust to the commodity market, as of April 24, plastic futures 1709 contract fell to 8525 yuan / ton, compared with mid-February fell 2145 yuan / ton, the end of 2015, the rate of increase Fell 60%. We believe that in the 8500 yuan / ton value of the investment range, the plastic market, bullish factors are gradually accumulating.
The financial sector to leverage the impact of commodities weakened
Since the end of last year, in order to cope with the real estate and financial sector bubble, the central bank in the case of economic growth has taken a tight tight monetary policy, the stock market and commodity markets weak down. We believe that the central bank’s main task this year is to prevent risks and financial areas to leverage and encourage funds to the real situation, regulators do not want to see the financial sector, financial constraints on the physical business have a negative impact, with the central bank to take the initiative to market flow As well as the central bank level position does not want the market overshoot, the financial sector is expected to leverage the negative impact on commodities weakened.
Crude oil prices are expected to support fluctuations by rising prices
The recent panic of the Saudi prince on the crude oil market led to a significant decline in oil prices, but the early May oil market oscillation adjustment is conducive to the May 25 OPEC oil-producing countries to extend the agreement, so as to the second half of the crude oil market supply and demand balance to provide a solid Guarantee. In addition, from a global perspective, is currently in the seasonal off-season consumption of crude oil, but June-August global consumption of crude oil demand will increase by 2 million barrels / day level, the US crude oil consumption has also entered the seasonal Consumption season, the United States continued record high new commercial crude oil inventories will peaked down, high inventory of oil prices will gradually weaken the role of pressure, with the late May oil producer to extend the expected further warming, is expected to continue international oil prices Fluctuate up.
Plastic market supply contraction is expected to be thicker
April to May, Petrochemical has entered the seasonal maintenance cycle, and into May, Qilu Petrochemical, Fushun Petrochemical, Yangzi Petrochemical, etc. have greater efforts to overhaul the program, which will exacerbate the domestic supply of LLDPE market contraction expectations. New equipment, the transit of the two PE equipment to build the main production of LDPE, LDPE and LLDPE spread is still relatively high, LDPE new production capacity of the impact of the linear market is limited.
From the import market point of view, foreign new PE device plans to put into operation in the second half and probabilistically delayed to the fourth quarter or 2018 years. And the current plastic market, the internal and external disk prices continue to rise in the upside down situation, and since February the plastic market downturn is not conducive to the release of the enthusiasm of traders import, 5-6 months is still the traditional import off-season, is expected in the second quarter of plastic imports A quarter will be a sharp decline.
From the demand point of view, the current demand for agricultural film film is basically over, only part of the factory according to the order of sporadic production, and the overall demand for packaging film in the weak, but the continued decline in the plastic market after the Spring Festival to suppress the release of some terminal needs, and the terminal Raw material inventory at a relatively low level, when the plastic spot price fell to 8500 yuan / ton since the end of 2015 since the low level, the latter part of the supply reduction is expected to stimulate the plastic downstream enterprises get goods enthusiasm.
Petrochemical stability will help trade links to inventory
After the May Day, petrochemical stocks accumulated to 87.5 million tons of medium level; delivery warehouse receipts for 203, at the same time in the history of low level, in view of the main 1709 contract flat water spot, the late futures market warehouse receipts pressure The On the other hand, after the Spring Festival, traders imported a large number of long-term cargo, but in the continued decline in the market, one after another to the port of imports more difficult to digest, which prompted the domestic plastic port stocks continue to run at high levels, trade Links take goods poor, petrochemical to inventory effect is not ideal. But with the petrochemical installation in May to increase the intensity of the increase and the late imports of the reduction is expected in the current 8500 yuan / ton line of market prices, petrochemical prices and confidence will be significantly strengthened, the late petrochemical prices to promote steady And drive the terminal enterprises to take the initiative to make up the probability of inventory is too large, which will help the trade links to inventory.
On the whole, with the financial sector to leverage the impact of the negative effects of commodity bad impact weakened, and the plastic market to gradually reduce the supply of late, plastic futures or oscillation strong operation.