According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PTA market overall showed a weak trend this week (February 10-14), with the current average PTA market price in East China at 5084 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.67% from the beginning of the week.
At the beginning of the week, the PX market on the raw material side saw a slight decrease in the negative load of the 4 million ton PX plant in East China, and a 400000 ton PX plant in South Korea was shut down, which strengthened the expectation of a tightening of the PX supply and demand pattern. The strong rise in PX provided stronger support for PTA costs. But with the continuous increase of US crude oil inventories, in addition to signals from the Federal Reserve that the pace of macro interest rate cuts has slowed down, and the possibility of easing geopolitical tensions, international oil prices have declined. As of February 13th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $71.29 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $75.02 per barrel, providing downward support for PTA costs.
In terms of supply, the maintenance of a 2.5 million ton PTA plant in Hainan has boosted the PTA spot market, with an industry operating rate of around 83%. In February, another 2.5 million plants are scheduled for maintenance, and the PTA operating rate is expected to decline. However, due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream polyester load has decreased significantly, resulting in seasonal accumulation of PTA supply and demand. Social inventory is expected to reach new highs, and the impact of plant maintenance on PTA supply is limited.
In terms of demand, polyester plants that have reduced production and undergone maintenance before the Spring Festival in February have started to restart one after another, and the operating rate of the domestic polyester industry has slightly increased to over 82%. The terminal weaving market is gradually recovering and recovering after the holiday, but there are fewer new orders. Manufacturers have sufficient stock of raw materials before the holiday and are digesting their previous raw material inventory. In the short term, their willingness to purchase is not strong, and there is a strong wait-and-see attitude.
Analysts from the business community believe that with workers returning to their posts after the Yuanxiao (Filled round balls made of glutinous rice-flour for Lantern Festival), the downstream enterprises will be more willing to replenish their stocks, and the demand will be further repaired. However, there is a possibility of easing the geopolitical situation in the crude oil market, and prices may run weakly, weakening the support for PTA costs. In addition, the pressure of PTA inventory accumulation in February is still relatively high, and the maintenance of some PTA factory equipment has limited impact on spot supply. The overall supply of goods is still abundant, and high inventory still suppresses PTA prices. Therefore, in the short term, PTA prices may continue to be weak.
| http://www.pva-china.net |