price trend
According to the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, at the end of February, the domestic PC market continued the weak consolidation trend, and most spot prices of various brands fell. As of February 25th, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC is around 16166.67 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of -1.92% compared to early February.
cause analysis
On the supply side: At the end of February, the load of domestic PC aggregation enterprises increased at a high level, and the industry average operating rate rose by 2% to over 82%. The average weekly production remains at a super high level of over 65000 tons, and there is ample supply of goods on site. The supply-demand imbalance is intensifying, and some manufacturers have set new factory prices. In addition, the inventory position is relatively high, and the on-site pricing continues to be at a low level. The market supply side has poor support for PC prices.
In terms of raw materials: From the above chart, it can be seen that the recent fluctuation and decline in the bisphenol A market are the main reasons, and the price trend is weak. Upstream acetone trading was sluggish, with a high level turning down. Phenol oscillates during operation, and the cost side provides only moderate assistance to bisphenol A. The burden on the bisphenol A industry has increased, and the supply has relaxed. Downstream weak demand leads to a decrease in actual orders from merchants. There is a lack of bullish guidance in the market, and the confidence of industry players is weak. Overall, the support for PC costs is average.
On the demand side: The PC consumption pattern has been weak for a long time, and the overall platform level has not improved compared to mid February. The return of downstream factories during holidays is slow, and the load increase of end enterprises is not significant. Due to poor on-site stocking, the purchasing logic is focused on weak demand, and there is still a certain amount of inventory to be digested. The wait-and-see attitude of businesses is biased, and buyers are resistant to high priced goods, increasing the pressure for businesses to sell. The circulation of goods in the market is slow, and the overall trading situation is basically continuing the light performance after the holiday. The demand side has poor support for PC spot prices.
Future forecast
At the end of February, the domestic PC market fell weakly. The upstream bisphenol A market is currently weak and volatile, which weakens the support for PC cost side. The load of domestic PC aggregation plants has increased at a high level, and the supply is loose. Industry inventory is high, and supply pressure is increasing instead of decreasing. The signs of slow recovery in downstream demand remain, with poor new orders and a deepening trend of supply-demand contradictions. It is expected that PC will continue to operate weakly in the short term.
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