price trend
According to the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market in early March continued the previous weak trend, with most spot prices of various brands operating at low levels. As of March 10th, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC is around 16000 yuan/ton, with a price fluctuation of -0.41% compared to early March.
cause analysis
On the supply side: In March, the load of domestic PC aggregation enterprises increased at a high level, and the current industry average operating rate remained unchanged from 86% at the beginning of March. The weekly average production is close to a super high level of 70000 tons, and the on-site supply is very abundant. Some manufacturers have lowered their factory prices at low levels. The mid stream inventory position is relatively high, and the on-site pricing continues to be sluggish. The market supply side has poor support for PC prices.
In terms of raw materials: From the above chart, it can be seen that the long positions of bisphenol A have gradually exhausted in the early stage, while since March, both upstream acetone and phenol have fallen, which has dampened the confidence of industry players in cost value. At the same time, the demand for bisphenol A is generally low, and the downward pressure on prices is increasing. Overall, the support of raw materials for PC costs is relatively weak.
On the demand side: The PC consumption pattern has been weak for a long time, and the overall market in early March continued to maintain a light pre holiday level. As of March 10th, the load increase of downstream factories has not been significant, resulting in poor stocking efforts of end enterprises and a focus on weak demand in procurement logic. And there is still a certain amount of inventory to be digested, and the supply-demand contradiction pattern continues to be profound. The wait-and-see attitude of businesses is biased, and buyers are resistant to high priced goods, increasing the pressure for businesses to sell. The circulation of goods in the market is slow, and the overall trading situation continues to be light. The demand side has poor support for PC spot prices.
Future forecast
The domestic PC market fell at a low level in early March. The upstream bisphenol A market still has weak expectations after the current decline, which weakens the support for PC cost side. The load of domestic PC aggregation plants is fluctuating at a high level, and the supply is loose. Industry inventory is high, and supply pressure is increasing instead of decreasing. The current downstream demand follow-up is still slow, the new order situation is not good, and the supply-demand contradiction is deepening. It is expected that PC will continue to operate weakly in the short term.
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