According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market has fluctuated slightly and declined recently (3.11-3.18). As of March 18th, the spot rubber market in China was around 16571 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.83% from 16709 yuan/ton on the 11th. Raw material prices have fallen slightly from high levels; Domestic Tianjiao Port inventory continues to increase; The downstream construction is basically stable; The Shanghai rubber market fluctuated and weakened, driving the natural rubber spot market to slightly decline.
At present, foreign natural rubber supply will gradually enter an increasing production period from a low production period. The Yunnan production area in China will be the first to enter a trial cutting period, while production areas such as Hainan, Vietnam, and northeastern Thailand in China will still stop cutting. Currently, natural rubber raw material prices are consolidating at a high level, and it is expected that they may decline in the future. As of March 18th, the price of Thai glue was 67.00 baht/kg, slightly lower than the 67.50 baht/kg on March 11th.
Natural rubber inventory continues to increase slightly, but overall it remains at a high level. As of March 16, 2025, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 599300 tons, an increase of 10700 tons or 1.82% compared to the previous period.
Supply and demand side: Downstream tire production is basically stable, mainly supporting the demand for natural rubber market. As of March 14th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was around 8.30%; The construction of all steel tires by tire enterprises in Shandong region has slightly increased to around 6.9% of the load.
Market forecast: When domestic and international raw material prices stabilize at a high level, but in the later stage, with the opening of some regions at home and abroad, the price of natural rubber raw materials may continue to fall. The downstream construction is gradually increasing, which provides some essential support for the demand for natural rubber, but the inventory of Tianjiao Port continues to grow slightly; Overall, it is expected that the natural rubber market will weaken and consolidate in the short term.
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