price trend
In March, nickel prices rose to the mid to low level of the year and fluctuated.
According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on March 16th, nickel prices reached a monthly high of 134991 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.11% from the beginning of the month and a new high in nearly five months; At the end of the month, it fell back to 132066 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 3.81%.
Macro positive support
The signal of domestic economic recovery is clear: the two sessions set targets for GDP growth of 5% and CPI of 2%, and the manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range in February (50.2)
Overseas policy disturbance: The cooling of US inflation strengthens expectations of interest rate cuts, but the market expects US tariffs on copper to reshape trade flows
Catalysis of sudden mining events
The conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo has led to the shutdown of the world’s third-largest tin mine, and sentiment in the non-ferrous sector is heating up
Indonesia’s nickel mine policy implements measures such as foreign exchange control and resource tax rate hike, intensifying supply side competition
Dual line game of supply and demand
Supply pressure still exists
Global explicit inventory continues to accumulate: On March 28th, LME nickel inventory increased by 5340 tons per month to reach 200304 tons, while Shanghai nickel inventory decreased by 872 tons per month to 26799 tons
The price of nickel ore in Indonesia has slightly increased, and if policies such as tax reform are implemented, it may raise the cost of the nickel industry chain
Demand resilience is evident
Stainless steel field: In March, stainless steel prices first rose and then fluctuated at a high level. As of the end of March, the spot price of stainless steel was 12628.57 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.51% from 12200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and a year-on-year increase of 0.55%. Infrastructure investment provides support, and demand is expected to moderately recover in the second quarter
New energy track: The trend towards high-end and export-oriented ternary batteries is clear, and the demand for nickel is structurally stable
Electroplating and alloys: Demand is relatively stable, buying at low prices and taking on urgent needs.
Future prospects
Short term nickel prices may maintain a strong range of fluctuations, with a focus on:
The final implementation pace of Indonesian policies
→ Inventory turnover during peak season for new energy vehicle consumption
Changes in overseas macro liquidity expectations
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