The market will accumulate empty,Shanghai Rubber will be further dropping

After the first trading day, Shanghai Rubber 1709 contract rose 3.5%, breaking the previous two weeks of consolidation trend, stand in 15,000 points in one fell swoop. And since then the macroeconomic downturn pressure, manufacturing PMI data is not ideal; financial regulatory trend, capital costs rise; international oil prices continued to fall and fundamentals and other factors together, Hujiao continued to fall, has fallen below 14000 mark.

Annual supply of large probability loose

Since the end of last year to the beginning of this year, Thailand suffered severe floods, tapping progress slowed down. According to statistics, January-February Thailand’s natural rubber production of 725,800 tons, down 13.9%, but the Thai government immediately to sell to the market to increase supply. From the transaction situation, the first round of throwing in January because the glue can not properly tapping, spot shortage and smooth turnover, but then several rounds to the end of the flow, which from the side shows the supply is not as good as imagined. The Thai government has said that by the end of May will be completed before the remaining 107,000 tons inventory auction, if the successful storage, then the market sentiment will cause further pressure.

According to ANRPC’s latest forecast, this year in addition to Indonesia, the main producing countries are expected to increase the main production, the annual supply of large probability loose. The recent Thai-producing areas gradually cut, the domestic production area will also be fully into the tapping period, the future supply side will gradually heavy volume.

Free trade in bonded areas increased

As of early May, Qingdao Bonded Area inventory totaled 249,800 tons, compared with mid-April increased by 29,700 tons, an increase of 13.49%. Since mid-February, bonded area stocks began to show a rapid upward trend, the cumulative cumulative rate of nearly 5 years since the fastest, and the growth rate did not slow down the trend. This is mainly the tire factory inventory at a high level, pre-demand is a lot of overdraft, the current new orders less, some factories began to take the initiative to reduce the operating rate, slow down the consumption of raw materials. And in November last year after the domestic natural rubber imports increased significantly in April this year, imports of natural rubber and synthetic rubber 58 million tons; January-April imports of 235 tons, up 30.3% over the same period last year. The current upstream and downstream industry chain stocks are at a high level, in a large number of imports and inventory consumption in the context of slow, is expected to continue to rise in the bonded area inventory.

Heavy truck sales are high or difficult to maintain

1 – April China’s heavy truck market to achieve sales of 387,000, an increase of 79.64%. This year, heavy truck sales soared for the following four reasons: First, since the fourth quarter of last year, the manufacturing industry to enter a new round of inventory cycle, coal and other commodities and upstream raw materials make up the logistics makes the demand for logistics and transportation, , Driven by heavy truck production and sales of rapid growth. Second, in August last year, the new national standard promulgated, significantly reduced the maximum load of the semi-trailer, which brought new capacity demand to stimulate heavy truck sales. Third, this year will become the infrastructure year, the provinces and cities in the fixed assets investment is expected to be more than 60 trillion yuan, and a large number of projects started at the beginning of the year, March and April are the peak of heavy truck sales. Fourth, last year, heavy truck sales surge makes some car prices difficult to complete orders on time, so part of the sales arrangements at the beginning of this year.

But heavy truck sales high growth or difficult to maintain. First of all, with the passage of time, last year’s rule of the New Deal brought about by the marginal effect will gradually weaken, in the relevant order gradually completed, follow-up logistics heavy truck is stable growth is still doubt. The second half of the beginning of the excess pressure will gradually appear, and since mid-January, China’s road logistics and freight index continued downward trend, while oil prices all the way up, has risen to 7,000 yuan / ton of the year high, heavy truck costs Overloaded freight will also drag some heavy truck sales. Finally, from the historical sales point of view, China’s heavy truck market sales over the years was “N” shape, March for the annual highs. April China’s heavy truck sales chain has been 10.2% decline in the second half if no new policy stimulus, sales will be more optimistic.

In short, in the absence of favorable subject matter to stimulate the case, Hujiao center of gravity will be further dropping.