According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from April 14th to 18th (as of 15:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market fell from 2459 yuan/ton to 2415 yuan/ton, a month on month decrease of 8.98% and a year-on-year decrease of 10.25%. The supply of methanol in the coastal market is increasing, but market confidence is insufficient, and the overall port market is still showing a weak trend. Due to the shutdown of some facilities and tight supply in some regions of the mainland methanol market, coupled with low inventory levels of enterprises, traders have a positive attitude towards purchasing goods. Production enterprises have raised prices and shipped goods, resulting in an overall strong operation of the mainland methanol market.
As of the close on April 18th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has risen. The main contract for methanol futures, 2505, opened at 2242 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2270 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2242 yuan/ton. It closed at 2266 yuan/ton in the closing session, up 12 yuan/ton from the previous trading day’s settlement, an increase of 0.53%. The trading volume is 619316 lots, the position is 670149 lots, and the daily increase is 1504 lots.
In terms of cost, the domestic chemical coal market has been stagnant and falling recently. The coal mines in the production area maintain normal production, and the overall supply is basically stable. Recently, there have been few coal mines with price adjustments, and the sales situation of each mine varies. Most of the coal prices at the mine mouth remain stable, and the queuing vehicles are average. The production area maintains normal transportation. The cost of methanol is influenced by negative factors.
Demand side, downstream acetic acid: increasing demand for acetic acid; Downstream chlorides: Chloride plants operate stably and have increased demand for methanol; Downstream MTBE: MTBE demand increases; Downstream dimethyl ether: After the start-up of the dimethyl ether new plant, normal operation is maintained and demand increases. Downstream formaldehyde: There is currently no maintenance or restart device for formaldehyde, and the demand fluctuation is not significant. The majority of downstream demand for methanol has increased, and the demand for methanol is influenced by favorable factors.
On the supply side, the overall loss exceeds the recovery, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization. The supply of methanol is affected by favorable factors.
In terms of external trading, as of the close on April 17th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $342.50-343.50 per ton, a decrease of $6 per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market was 92.00-93.00 cents/gallon, down 1 cent/gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 279.50-280.50 yuan/ton, up 1 euro/ton.
In the future forecast, the supply from mainland China is expected to be low, port supply is expected to increase, and downstream demand is lukewarm. The methanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the domestic methanol spot market will mainly consolidate.
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