price trend
According to the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market has been fluctuating recently, with some spot prices of certain brands experiencing mixed ups and downs. As of April 22nd, the benchmark price of Business Society PC hybrid is around 15500 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of -1.69% compared to the beginning of the month.
cause analysis
On the supply side: As we enter late April, the load of domestic PC aggregation enterprises remains mainly stable. As of April 22nd, the industry average operating level has slightly increased to 83% compared to the middle of the month. During this period, the weekly average production remained above 60000 tons, still at a super high level, and the on-site supply was very abundant. Manufacturers and midstream inventory positions are relatively high, and shipping pressure continues to be high. The market supply side has weak support for PC prices.
In terms of raw materials: as can be seen from the figure above, BPA has been adjusted and operated after the price rise recently. Affected by the temporary low point of the industry in the early stage, some regions are experiencing tight supply, supporting the upward trend of spot prices. At the same time, acetone and phenol remain firm after heating up, forming a support for spot goods. However, the price of upstream crude oil in the middle and far ends of the month has been hit by the US tariffs, which has undermined the confidence of industry players in the future. In addition, there has been a recent increase in the workload of some enterprises, which has weakened the positive impact on supply. The dual downstream consumption demand is firmly supported, and overall, the support of raw materials for PC costs is still acceptable.
In terms of demand: Recently, PC consumption has continued to follow the pattern of rigid demand, and new orders in the market have basically remained at the same level as the same period in previous years. Downstream factories are returning to normal load and stocking up as scheduled. Be cautious in purchasing logic. However, due to the long-term weak market dynamics in the industry, high social inventory, and abundant on-site sources of goods, the supply-demand imbalance tends towards destocking. Under the influence of international news such as equivalent tariffs, merchants tend to be cautious and buyers are resistant to high priced goods. As the pre holiday stock gradually runs out in the future, the circulation speed of on-site goods is bound to slow down. Overall, the demand side has weak support for PC spot prices.
Future forecast
In late April, the domestic PC market experienced volatile consolidation. The upstream bisphenol A market is currently holding at a high level, with support for PC costs flattening. The load of domestic PC aggregation plants is generally stable, and the pattern of strong supply remains unchanged. The current downstream demand follows the logic of essential demand, and the impact of US tariff policies and crude oil fluctuations has left industry players with unchanged concerns about the future. Market trading has been sluggish as pre holiday stocking gradually comes to an end. At the same time, the industry’s inventory is high, and there is great pressure for sellers to sell their products. Therefore, it is expected that the PC market will continue to be light and stable in the short term. It is recommended to closely monitor relevant news on the foreign trade environment.
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