According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China fell this week (4.7-4.11), with an average market price of 277430 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 253630 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a weekly decline of 8.58%.
Fundamentally, in terms of supply at the mining end, the tin mines in the Wa State of Myanmar were affected by the earthquake on March 28th, and the originally planned resumption of production was postponed to the third quarter; The Bisie mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo adopts a phased resumption strategy.
At the macro policy level, the Shanghai tin market experienced its largest weekly decline of the year due to the impact of the US announcement of tariffs on China on April 8th, and the London Metal Exchange (LME) tin price also fell in sync. On April 11th, the United States announced tariff exemptions for electronic products such as smartphones and computers, which improved market sentiment.
The dynamics of the spot market show that at the beginning of the week, panic triggered a wave of selling in the market, resulting in an expansion of the spot discount. However, as prices hit bottom, downstream companies gradually released their demand to replenish inventory at low prices, and the spot premium trend gradually recovered to near the normal level. The market transaction activity in major trading regions such as Guangdong and Shanghai significantly increased.
In terms of inventory, there is a trend of accumulated inventory in China, with the total social inventory increasing to 12000 tons and the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rising to 10377 tons. This phenomenon is mainly attributed to the inhibitory effect of high tin prices on demand, as well as the continuous inflow of imported tin ingots. In contrast, overseas inventory continues to decrease, and LME inventory has dropped to 3140 tons.
comprehensive analysis
Although macro level risk factors have not completely dissipated in the short term, the long-term support effect formed by the rigid supply gap in the mining sector and the growth of demand in emerging industries will still provide key support for the trend of tin prices.
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