According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of April 11th, the price of lead 1 # was 16795 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.56% from the lead price of 16890 yuan/ton on April 7th.
This week’s market analysis
This week, lead prices were affected by macro factors and operated weakly.
Starting from 12:00 on April 10th, China will impose tariffs on all imported goods originating from the United States. The adjustment of tariff rates between China and the United States this time far exceeded market expectations, and the impact of macro factors continues to ferment and expand. Market risk aversion has significantly increased, and the non-ferrous metal sector as a whole has shown a general downward trend. In terms of the lead industry chain, the impact of this tariff increase is relatively significant. On the one hand, the United States is the main source of lead concentrate imports for China, and tariff adjustments will to some extent push up the cost of lead smelting; On the other hand, the export of lead-acid batteries for automobiles has also been affected, and tariff changes may have adverse effects on the export business of related battery products.
supply end
The profitability of the domestic primary lead smelting industry has significantly improved, and smelters have successfully overcome losses and achieved profitability, with profit margins gradually expanding. In this context, the production enthusiasm of smelters is high, and the power to release production capacity is abundant. It is expected that the production of primary lead will maintain a steady growth trend. In the field of recycled lead, due to the continuous rise in the market price of lead waste and the tightening supply of raw materials, recycled lead production enterprises are facing a sudden increase in cost pressure, or production cuts may occur due to difficulty in bearing the heavy cost burden.
demand side
The current domestic policy effectiveness continues to be released and forms long-term support. It is necessary to focus on the recovery of the terminal consumer market for electric bicycles (electric scooters) and the dynamic changes in the production and sales scale of the automotive industry. The marginal driving effect of these two fields on the demand for lead materials may become a key driving force to support the stabilization and improvement of the lead market.
comprehensive analysis
The supply and demand pattern of the lead industry itself is tightening in the short term, and lead prices may show a weak oscillation pattern of “macro downward traction and fundamental bottom support”. It is necessary to closely monitor the progress of subsequent smelter maintenance and the effectiveness of policy implementation.
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